California's 13th Congressional District election, 2024
Adam Gray (D) defeated incumbent Rep. John Duarte (R) in the general election for California's 13th Congressional District on November 5, 2024. Duarte was one of 15 incumbents who lost their re-election campaigns to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2024. Additionally, this was one of 19 seats that changed partisan control due to the 2024 U.S. House of Representatives elections.
The race was a rematch from 2022, when Duarte defeated Gray by 564 votes. The 2022 race was the second-closest House race in the country that year. Duarte's 2022 victory was the first for a Republican in the district since 1974, when Robert Lagomarsino won a special election.
Duarte was first elected in 2022. Heading into the election, he was the owner of Duarte Nursery and was a fourth-generational farmer in the San Joaquin Valley. His campaign focused on affordable living and adequate water supply for the valley. Duarte cast Gray as out of touch with the district. “Adam’s gonna have a hard time coming into the middle and convincing the voters that his voting record as an Assemblyman for 10 years was more in tune with the Valley and this district than my voting record has been this last year.”[1][2]
Gray was first elected to the California Assembly in 2012. Heaading into the election, he was a professor at the University of California Merced and owned a small business. His campaign focused on his legislative record, particularly leading the New Democratic Caucus, addressing a doctor shortage, and securing funding to extend the ACE train to Modesto and Merced. Regarding the rematch Gray said: “I’ve got a record; now John’s got a record. He didn’t have a record when he ran in ’22 … Now he does. So, voters get a chance to look at the 10 years of service that I provided in the state legislature.”[3][4]
As of October 30, 2024, four major election forecasters differed in their ratings for the general election, with three rating it a toss-up and one rating it Tilt Democratic.
Based on third quarter reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Duarte raised $4.1 million and spent $3.2 million and Gray raised $5.4 million and spent $4.7 million. To review all the campaign finance figures in full detail, click here.
The outcome of this race affected the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. All 435 House districts were up for election.
At the time of the election, Republicans held a 220-212 majority with three vacancies.[5] As a result of the election, Republicans retained control of the U.S. House, winning 220 seats to Democrats' 215.[6] To read more about the 2024 U.S. House elections, click here.
In the 2022 election in this district, the Republican candidate won 50.2%-49.8%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have defeated Donald Trump (R) 54.3%-43.4%.[7]
This was one of 13 districts won by Donald Trump (R) in the 2024 presidential election and by a Democratic candidate in the U.S. House election. To read more, click here.
For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 13
Adam Gray defeated incumbent John Duarte in the general election for U.S. House California District 13 on November 5, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Adam Gray (D) | 50.0 | 105,554 |
![]() | John Duarte (R) | 50.0 | 105,367 |
Total votes: 210,921 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 13
Incumbent John Duarte and Adam Gray advanced from the primary for U.S. House California District 13 on March 5, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | John Duarte (R) | 54.9 | 47,219 |
✔ | ![]() | Adam Gray (D) | 45.1 | 38,754 |
Total votes: 85,973 | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Brad Boyd (D)
- Phil Arballo (D)
- Diego Martinez (R)
- Angelina Sigala (D)
Voting information
- See also: Voting in California
Candidate comparison
Candidate profiles
This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.
Party: Republican Party
Incumbent: Yes
Political Office: U.S. House - California's 13th Congressional District (Elected: 2022)
Biography: Duarte's career experience included owning Duarte Nursery and working as a farmer. He received his master's from the University of the Pacific and his bachelor's from San Diego State University.
Show sources
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 13 in 2024.
Party: Democratic Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: California State Assembly - District 21 (2012-2022)
Biography: Gray's career experience included working as a legislative aide with the California State Legislature and an assistant lecturer with the University of California at Merced. He received his bachelor's from UC Santa Barbara.
Show sources
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 13 in 2024.
Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses
Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.
No candidate in this race completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey.
Campaign ads
This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.
Duarte
Ballotpedia did not come across any campaign ads for Duarte while conducting research on this election. If you are aware of any ads that should be included, please email us.
Gray
Election competitiveness
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
We provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. No polls were available for this election. To notify us of polls published in this election, please email us.
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]
Race ratings: California's 13th Congressional District election, 2024 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
November 5, 2024 | October 29, 2024 | October 22, 2024 | October 15, 2024 | ||||||
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Tilt Democratic | Tilt Democratic | Tilt Democratic | Toss-up | |||||
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Democratic | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week. |
Endorsements
Click the links below to see official endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites for any candidates that make that information available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.
Election spending
Campaign finance
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Duarte | Republican Party | $4,576,132 | $4,386,893 | $214,758 | As of December 31, 2024 |
Adam Gray | Democratic Party | $6,430,862 | $6,293,279 | $191,958 | As of December 31, 2024 |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
Satellite spending
- See also: Satellite spending
Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[12][13][14]
If available, this section includes links to online resources tracking satellite spending in this election. To notify us of a resource to add, email us.
By candidate | By election |
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District analysis
Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.
- District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
- Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
- Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
- State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
Below was the map in use at the time of the election. Click the map below to enlarge it.

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in California.
California U.S. House primary competitiveness, 2014-2024 | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested top-two primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | |||||
2024 | 52 | 52 | 7 | 241 | 52 | 42 | 80.8% | 36 | 80.0% | |||||
2022 | 52 | 52 | 5 | 272 | 52 | 52 | 100.0% | 47 | 100.0% | |||||
2020 | 53 | 53 | 4 | 262 | 53 | 47 | 88.7% | 32 | 64.0% | |||||
2018 | 53 | 53 | 2 | 244 | 53 | 41 | 77.4% | 39 | 76.5% | |||||
2016 | 53 | 53 | 4 | 202 | 53 | 40 | 75.5% | 36 | 73.5% | |||||
2014 | 53 | 53 | 6 | 209 | 53 | 38 | 71.7% | 32 | 68.1% |
Post-filing deadline analysis
The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in California in 2024. Information below was calculated on 1/16/2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.
Two-hundred forty-one candidates filed to run for California's 52 U.S. House districts in 2024, including 125 Democrats, 88 Republicans, and 28 independent or minor party candidates. That’s 4.63 candidates per district. In 2022, the first election after the number of congressional districts in California decreased from 53 to 52 following the 2020 census, 5.2 candidates filed per district. In 2020, when the state still had 53 Congressional districts, 4.94 candidates filed per district. In 2018, 4.6 candidates filed.
The 241 candidates who ran in California in 2024 were the fewest total number of candidates since 2016, when 202 candidates ran. Forty-five incumbents—34 Democrats and 11 Republicans—ran for re-election. That was fewer than in 2022, when 47 incumbents ran. Six districts were open, one more than in 2022, and the most since 2014, when six districts were also open.
Incumbents Barbara Lee (D-12th), Adam Schiff (D-30th), and Katie Porter (D-47th) ran for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat. Incumbent Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) didn't run for re-election. Incumbents Grace Napolitano (D-31st), Tony Cárdenas (D-29th), and Anna Eshoo (D-16th) retired from public office. One incumbent—Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-20th)—left Congress before the end of his term. A special election was held to fill his seat before the general election.
Fifteen candidates—12 Democrats, two Republicans, and one nonpartisan—ran in the open 30th district, the most candidates running for a seat in 2024.
Forty-two primaries were contested, the fewest since 2018, when 41 were contested. All 52 primaries were contested in 2022, and 47 were in 2020. In California, which uses a top-two primary system, a primary is contested if more than two candidates file to run.
Incumbents ran in 35 of the 42 contested primaries. That’s lower than 2022, when 47 incumbents ran in contested primaries, but higher than every other year since 2014. In 2020, 32 incumbents faced contested primaries. Thirty-nine incumbents did so in 2018, 36 in 2016, and 32 in 2014.
Democratic candidates ran in every district. Republican candidates ran in every district except one—the 37th. Two Democrats, including incumbent Sydney Kamlage-Dove, one nonpartisan candidate, and one Peace and Freedom Party member ran in that district.Partisan Voter Index
Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+4. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 4 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made California's 13th the 176th most Democratic district nationally.[15]
2020 presidential election results
The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
2020 presidential results in California's 13th based on 2024 district lines | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden ![]() |
Donald Trump ![]() | |||
54.3% | 43.4% |
Inside Elections Baselines
- See also: Inside Elections
Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.[16] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.
Inside Elections Baseline for 2024 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic Baseline ![]() |
Republican Baseline ![]() |
Difference | ||
50.4 | 49.2 | D+1.2 |
Presidential voting history
California presidential election results (1900-2020)
- 15 Democratic wins
- 15 Republican wins
- 1 other win
Year | 1900 | 1904 | 1908 | 1912 | 1916 | 1920 | 1924 | 1928 | 1932 | 1936 | 1940 | 1944 | 1948 | 1952 | 1956 | 1960 | 1964 | 1968 | 1972 | 1976 | 1980 | 1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Winning Party | R | R | R | P[17] | D | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Congressional delegation
The table below displays the partisan composition of California's congressional delegation as of May 2024.
Congressional Partisan Breakdown from California | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | U.S. Senate | U.S. House | Total |
Democratic | 2 | 43 | 45 |
Republican | 0 | 9 | 9 |
Independent | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Vacancies | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total | 2 | 52 | 54 |
State executive
The table below displays the officeholders in California's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.
State executive officials in California, May 2024 | |
---|---|
Office | Officeholder |
Governor | ![]() |
Lieutenant Governor | ![]() |
Secretary of State | ![]() |
Attorney General | ![]() |
State legislature
California State Senate
Party | As of February 2024 | |
---|---|---|
Democratic Party | 32 | |
Republican Party | 8 | |
Other | 0 | |
Vacancies | 0 | |
Total | 40 |
California State Assembly
Party | As of February 2024 | |
---|---|---|
Democratic Party | 62 | |
Republican Party | 18 | |
Independent | 1 | |
Other | 0 | |
Vacancies | 0 | |
Total | 80 |
Trifecta control
The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.
California Party Control: 1992-2024
Nineteen years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Assembly | D | D | D | S | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Election context
Ballot access requirements
The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in California in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in California, click here.
Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Filing fee | Filing deadline | Source |
California | U.S. House | All candidates | 40-60 | $1,740.00[18] | 12/8/2023 | Source |
District history
The section below details election results for this office in elections dating back to 2018.
2022
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 13
John Duarte defeated Adam Gray in the general election for U.S. House California District 13 on November 8, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | John Duarte (R) ![]() | 50.2 | 67,060 |
![]() | Adam Gray (D) | 49.8 | 66,496 |
Total votes: 133,556 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 13
John Duarte and Adam Gray defeated Phil Arballo, David Giglio, and Diego Martinez in the primary for U.S. House California District 13 on June 7, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | John Duarte (R) ![]() | 34.2 | 26,163 |
✔ | ![]() | Adam Gray (D) | 31.1 | 23,784 |
Phil Arballo (D) | 17.1 | 13,099 | ||
![]() | David Giglio (R) ![]() | 14.8 | 11,320 | |
Diego Martinez (R) | 2.7 | 2,026 |
Total votes: 76,392 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Angelina Sigala (D)
2020
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 13
Incumbent Barbara Lee defeated Nikka Piterman in the general election for U.S. House California District 13 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Barbara Lee (D) | 90.4 | 327,863 | |
![]() | Nikka Piterman (R) ![]() | 9.6 | 34,955 |
Total votes: 362,818 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 13
Incumbent Barbara Lee and Nikka Piterman advanced from the primary for U.S. House California District 13 on March 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Barbara Lee (D) | 92.6 | 230,482 | |
✔ | ![]() | Nikka Piterman (R) ![]() | 7.4 | 18,553 |
Total votes: 249,035 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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2018
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 13
Incumbent Barbara Lee defeated Laura Wells in the general election for U.S. House California District 13 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Barbara Lee (D) | 88.4 | 260,580 | |
![]() | Laura Wells (G) | 11.6 | 34,257 |
Total votes: 294,837 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 13
Incumbent Barbara Lee and Laura Wells advanced from the primary for U.S. House California District 13 on June 5, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Barbara Lee (D) | 99.5 | 159,751 | |
✔ | ![]() | Laura Wells (G) | 0.5 | 832 |
Total votes: 160,583 | ||||
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2024 battleground elections
- See also: Battlegrounds
This was a battleground election. Other 2024 battleground elections included:
- Mayoral election in Portland, Oregon (2024)
- North Carolina Secretary of State election, 2024
- Wisconsin's 8th Congressional District election, 2024 (August 13 Republican primary)
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ John Duarte 2024 campaign website, "About," accessed July 1, 2024
- ↑ Fresno Bee, "This Central Valley congressional district could be Democrats’ easiest California pickup," March 5, 2024
- ↑ Turlock Journal, "Gray gearing up for run against Duarte in CA-13 race," February 23, 2024
- ↑ Adam Gray 2024 campaign website, "About," accessed July 1, 2024
- ↑ A majority in the U.S. House when there are no vacancies is 218 seats.
- ↑ These figures include the seat of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who resigned on Nov. 13, 2024, after winning re-election.
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts," accessed September 15, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," December 12, 2021
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed January 10, 2024
- ↑ Inside Elections, "Methodology: Inside Elections’ Baseline by Congressional District," December 8, 2023
- ↑ Progressive Party
- ↑ 2,000 signatures can be provided in lieu of the filing fee
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