United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky, 2024
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May 21, 2024 |
November 5, 2024 |
2024 U.S. House Elections |
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The U.S. House of Representatives elections in Kentucky were on November 5, 2024. Voters elected six candidates to serve in the U.S. House from each of the state's six U.S. House districts. The primary was May 21, 2024. The filing deadline was January 5, 2024.
Partisan breakdown
| Members of the U.S. House from Kentucky -- Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 2024 | After the 2024 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 1 | 1 | |
| Republican Party | 5 | 5 | |
| Total | 6 | 6 | |
Candidates
District 1
General election candidates
- James Comer Jr. (Incumbent) (Republican Party) ✔
- Erin Marshall (Democratic Party)
Democratic primary candidates
This primary was canceled and this candidate advanced:
Republican primary candidates
This primary was canceled and this candidate advanced:
- James Comer Jr. (Incumbent) ✔
District 2
General election candidates
- Brett Guthrie (Incumbent) (Republican Party) ✔
- Hank Linderman (Democratic Party)
Democratic primary candidates
Republican primary candidates
This primary was canceled and this candidate advanced:
- Brett Guthrie (Incumbent) ✔
District 3
General election candidates
- Morgan McGarvey (Incumbent) (Democratic Party) ✔
- Mike Craven (Republican Party)
- Jared Randall (Democratic Party) (Write-in)
- Daniel Cobble (Independent) (Write-in)
= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey Democratic primary candidates
- Morgan McGarvey (Incumbent) ✔
- Jared Randall
- Geoff M. Young
= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey Republican primary candidates
District 4
General election candidates
- Thomas Massie (Incumbent) (Republican Party) ✔
- Benjamin Middendorf (Independent) (Write-in)
Democratic primary candidates
The Democratic Party primary was canceled. No candidates filed for this race.
Did not make the ballot:
Republican primary candidates
- Thomas Massie (Incumbent) ✔
- Eric Deters
- Michael McGinnis
= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey
District 5
General election candidates
- Hal Rogers (Incumbent) (Republican Party) ✔
Democratic primary candidates
The Democratic Party primary was canceled. No candidates filed for this race.
Republican primary candidates
- Hal Rogers (Incumbent) ✔
- Dana Edwards
- David Kraftchak
- Brandon Monhollen
Did not make the ballot:
= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey
District 6
General election candidates
- Andy Barr (Incumbent) (Republican Party) ✔
- Randy Cravens (Democratic Party)
= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey Democratic primary candidates
= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey Republican primary candidates
This primary was canceled and this candidate advanced:
- Andy Barr (Incumbent) ✔
Voting information
- See also: Voting in Kentucky
General election race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[1]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[2][3][4]
Click the following links to see the race ratings in each of the state's U.S. House districts:
- Kentucky's 1st Congressional District
- Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District
- Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District
- Kentucky's 4th Congressional District
- Kentucky's 5th Congressional District
- Kentucky's 6th Congressional District
Ballot access
The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Kentucky in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Kentucky, click here.
| Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Filing fee | Filing deadline | Source |
| Kentucky | U.S. House | Ballot-qualified party | 2 | $500.00 | 1/5/2024 | Source |
| Kentucky | U.S. House | Unaffiliated | 400 | $500.00 | 6/4/2024 | Source |
Election analysis
Click the tabs below to view information about competitiveness, presidential election history, and party control in the state.
- Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
- Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the state's U.S. House districts.
- State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Kentucky.
| Kentucky U.S. House competitiveness, 2014-2024 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | ||||
| 2024 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 23 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 50.0% | 3 | 50.0% | ||||
| 2022 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 31 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 66.7% | 4 | 80.0% | ||||
| 2020 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 58.3% | 4 | 66.7% | ||||
| 2018 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 28 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 66.7% | 2 | 33.3% | ||||
| 2016 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 41.7% | 2 | 40.0% | ||||
| 2014 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 33.3% | 1 | 16.7% | ||||
Post-filing deadline analysis
The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Kentucky in 2024. Information below was calculated on 2/5/2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.
Twenty-three candidates filed to run for Kentucky’s six U.S. House districts, including 11 Democrats and 12 Republicans. That’s 3.8 candidates per district, lower than the 5.2 candidates who ran in 2022, but higher than the 3.5 who ran in 2020.
No seats were open in 2024, meaning all incumbents ran for re-election. There was one House seat open in 2022 and another one in 2016, the only two election cycles this decade in which House seats were open.
Six candidates filed to run for Kentucky’s sixth congressional district, the most candidates who ran for a district in 2024. The candidates who ran included Republican incumbent Andy Barr and six Democrats.
Six primaries—three Democratic and three Republican—were contested, the fewest since 2016. Eight primaries were contested in 2022, and seven were in 2020.
Three incumbents—one Democrat and two Republicans—faced primary challengers. That’s fewer than 2022 and 2020, when four incumbents faced challengers, but more than 2018 and 2016, when two incumbents did.
The 4th and 5th districts were guaranteed to Republicans because no Democrats ran. Republican candidates filed to run in every district, meaning none were guaranteed to Democrats.| Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index for Kentucky, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI |
| Kentucky's 1st | James Comer Jr. |  Republican |
R+24 |
| Kentucky's 2nd | Brett Guthrie | Republican |
R+21 |
| Kentucky's 3rd | Morgan McGarvey |  Democratic |
D+9 |
| Kentucky's 4th | Thomas Massie | Republican |
R+19 |
| Kentucky's 5th | Hal Rogers | Republican |
R+32 |
| Kentucky's 6th | Andy Barr | Republican |
R+9 |
| 2020 presidential results in congressional districts based on 2024 district lines, Kentucky[5] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Joe Biden
|
Donald Trump
| ||
| Kentucky's 1st | 27.9% | 70.6% | ||
| Kentucky's 2nd | 30.8% | 67.5% | ||
| Kentucky's 3rd | 60.2% | 37.9% | ||
| Kentucky's 4th | 32.8% | 65.4% | ||
| Kentucky's 5th | 19.7% | 79.1% | ||
| Kentucky's 6th | 43.5% | 54.5% | ||
Congressional delegation
The table below displays the partisan composition of Kentucky's congressional delegation as of May 2024.
| Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Kentucky | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | U.S. Senate | U.S. House | Total |
| Democratic | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Republican | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Independent | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vacancies | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 2 | 6 | 8 |
State executive
The table below displays the officeholders in Kentucky's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.
| State executive officials in Kentucky, May 2024 | |
|---|---|
| Office | Officeholder |
| Governor | Andy Beshear
|
| Lieutenant Governor | Jacqueline Coleman
|
| Secretary of State | Michael Adams
|
| Attorney General | Russell Coleman
|
State legislature
Kentucky State Senate
| Party | As of February 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 7 | |
| Republican Party | 31 | |
| Other | 0 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | |
| Total | 38 | |
Kentucky House of Representatives
| Party | As of February 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 20 | |
| Republican Party | 78 | |
| Other | 0 | |
| Vacancies | 2 | |
| Total | 100 | |
Trifecta control
The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.
Kentucky Party Control: 1992-2024
Eight years of Democratic trifectas • Three years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012," accessed December 15, 2023
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