Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2024
Last updated October 29, 2024
Ballotpedia's 2024 study of competitiveness in congressional elections found that 12.2% of incumbent U.S. senators and representatives did not file for re-election. In 2022, 14.3% of incumbents did not run for re-election, 9.6% did not run in 2020, and 11.8% did not run in 2018.
Thirty-eight U.S. House races without major party competition (meaning the district either did not have a Democrat running or did not have a Republican running). There were 35 such races in 2022, 20 races in 2020, and 41 races in 2018.
In 2024, 411 incumbent members of Congress sought their party's nomination for another term at a primary or nominating convention. Of those, 215 (52.3%) advanced to the general election without facing a contested primary. In 2022, 39.8% of incumbents ran unopposed, and 46.8% in 2020.
Key sections of analysis on this page include:
- Incumbents not advancing to the general election in 2024
- Primary election competitiveness
- Races without major party competition
Defining competitiveness
An election is considered more competitive when there is no incumbent running for re-election. This analysis examines both the degree of competitiveness, relative to past election years, and factors that may have contributed to the degree of competitiveness in the current year.
Incumbent advantage is frequently cited in political theory and its importance frequently debated. For example, data compiled by OpenSecrets.org shows the re-election rate for incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives has been 85% or higher for each of the 30 two-year election cycles between 1964 and 2022. From 2010-2022, the re-election rate averaged 93.2%.
Incumbents not advancing to the general election
This section breaks down those incumbents who did not advance to the general election into three categories: open seats, incumbents defeated before the general election, and additional retirements. Open seats include any seat that was open at the time of the primary, meaning the incumbent either did not file for re-election or filed but withdrew before the primary. Those incumbents who were defeated in primaries or conventions are listed next. Additional departures includes incumbents who participated in primaries, but did not advance to the general election for other reasons.
Open seats
At the time of the 2024 elections, there were 469 incumbents in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives eligible to run for re-election, including 232 Democrats, 233 Republicans, and four independents. Fifty-seven incumbents (12.2% of the total) did not seek re-election in 2024. This included eight of 34 U.S. senators (23.5%) and 49 of 435 U.S. representatives (11.3%). By party, Democrats held 28 open seats, meaning 12.1% of the 232 Democratic incumbents did not seek re-election in 2024. Republicans held 27, meaning 11.6% of the 233 Republican incumbents did not seek re-election in 2024.
The reasons for the 57 open seats were as follows:
- Ran for other offices in 2024: 19 open seats
- Twelve U.S. House members ran for U.S. Senate: John Curtis (R-Utah), Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.), David Trone (D-Md.), Colin Allred (D-Texas), Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Jim Banks (R-Ind.), Katie Porter (D-Calif.), and Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.).
- Two U.S. House members ran for governor: Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.) and Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.). One U.S. Senate member ran for governor: Mike Braun (R-Ind.).
- Two U.S. House members ran for attorney general: Jeff Jackson (D-N.C.) and Dan Bishop (R-N.C.).
- Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) ran for President of the United States.
- Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.) ran for the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors.
- Retirements and resignations: 38 open seats
- Democrats: Sixteen Democratic incumbents (four in the U.S. Senate and 12 in the U.S. House) announced they would not seek re-election.
- Republicans: Twenty Republican incumbents (one in the U.S. Senate and 19 in the U.S. House) announced they would not seek re-election. Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), Bill Johnson (R-Ohio), and Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) resigned before their respective primaries. McCarthy's and Johnson's seat were filled through special elections. Gallagher's seat will be filled through a special election on Nov. 5, 2024.
- Independents: Two independent senators, Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin, announced they would not seek re-election.
Defeated before the general election
Four U.S. House incumbents—two Democrats and two Republicans—were defeated in primaries before the general election. The most recent U.S. senator to be defeated in a primary was Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), who lost to Richard Mourdock in 2012.
| Incumbent U.S. House members defeated before the general election in 2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incumbent | District | Primary winner | Margin of victory | ||||
 Jamaal Bowman |
New York's 16th | George Latimer |
D+17.2 | ||||
| Cori Bush |
Missouri's 1st | Wesley Bell |
D+5.6 | ||||
 Jerry Carl |
Alabama's 1st | Barry Moore |
R+3.4 | ||||
| Bob Good |
Virginia's 5th | John McGuire |
R+0.6 | ||||
Additional departures
- Reps. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.) and Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) won their respective primaries but died before their general elections. Special elections will be held on Nov. 8, 2024 to fill the remainder of their terms.
Click [Show] to view data from the above chart:
| Outgoing members of Congress before the general election, 2012-2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Chamber | Democrats not seeking re-election | Republicans not seeking re-election | Total not seeking re-election | |||
| 2024 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 4 | 2 | 8[1] (23.5% of total) | ||||
| U.S. House | 26 | 27 | 53 (12.2% of total) | ||||
| Total | 32 | 29 | 61 (13.0%) | ||||
| 2022 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 2 | 5 | 7 (20.6% of total) | ||||
| U.S. House | 43 | 34 | 77 (17.7% of total) | ||||
| Total | 45 | 39 | 84 (17.9% of total) | ||||
| 2020 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 1 | 3 | 4 (12.1% of total) | ||||
| U.S. House | 14 | 36 | 51[2] (11.7% of total) | ||||
| Total | 15 | 39 | 55 (11.8% of total) | ||||
| 2018 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 0 | 3 | 3 (9.1% of total) | ||||
| U.S. House | 19 | 36 | 55 (13.2% of total) | ||||
| Total | 19 | 39 | 58 (12.9% of total) | ||||
| 2016 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 3 | 2 | 5 (14.7% of total) | ||||
| U.S. House | 8 | 20 | 28 (6.4% of total) | ||||
| Total | 11 | 22 | 33 (7.0% of total) | ||||
| 2014 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 5 | 2 | 7 (21.2% of total) | ||||
| U.S. House | 16 | 25 | 41 (9.4% of total) | ||||
| Total | 21 | 27 | 48 (10.3% of total) | ||||
| 2012 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 6 | 3 | 10[3] (30.3% of total) | ||||
| U.S. House | 23 | 20 | 43 (9.9% of total) | ||||
| Total | 29 | 23 | 53 (11.3% of total) | ||||
Primary election competitiveness
The following charts and maps show primary competitiveness information, including the number of primaries and incumbents challenged in primaries. In this section, the open seats metric only includes those incumbents who did not seek re-election, excluding incumbents defeated in primaries or those who departed for other reasons following the primary.
U.S. House
In 2024, 1,773 candidates ran in primaries for U.S. House districts, the fewest since 2016, when 1,588 candidates ran. There were 384 contested primaries for U.S. House districts, the fewest since 2016 when there were 358 primaries.
Breaking down by party, there were 1437 contested Democratic primaries for U.S. House districts, the fewest since 2016, when there were 133. On the Republican side, there were 189 contested primaries for U.S. House districts, the fewest since 2018, when there were 170. There were 58 contested top-two primaries, the fewest since 2018, when there were 55.
Incumbents in contested primaries
In 2024, 183 incumbents ran in contested primaries for U.S. House districts, the fewest since 2018, when 190 incumbents ran.
The following table lists incumbent U.S. House members who ran in contested primaries in 2024.
U.S. Senate
In 2024, 215 candidates ran in primaries for U.S. Senate seats, the fewest since 2014, when 191 candidates ran. There were 38 contested primaries for U.S. Senate seats, the fewest of any other year in the last 10 years.
Breaking down by party, there were 14 contested Democratic primaries for U.S. Senate seats, the fewest since 2018, when there were 14. On the Republican side, there were 22 contested primaries for U.S. Senate seats, the fewest since 2020, when there were 22. There were two contested top-two primaries, the fewest since 2020 when there was one.
Incumbents in contested primaries
In 2024, 13 incumbents ran in contested primaries for U.S. Senate seats, the fewest of any other year in the last 10 years.
The following table lists incumbent U.S. Senate members who ran in contested primaries in 2024.
| Incumbent U.S. Senate members who ran in contested primaries in 2022 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incumbent | State | Primary opponent(s) | |||||
| Rick Scott |
Florida | Keith Gross | |||||
| Mazie Hirono |
Hawaii | Ron Curtis | |||||
| Amy Klobuchar |
Minnesota | Steve Carlson Ahmad Hassan Ole Savior George Kalberer
| |||||
| Roger Wicker |
Mississippi | Ghannon Burton Dan Eubanks
| |||||
| Jon Tester |
Montana | Michael Hummert
| |||||
| Deb Fischer |
Nebraska | Arron Kowalski
| |||||
| Jacky Rosen |
Nevada | Troy Walker Mike Schaefer
| |||||
| Sheldon Whitehouse |
Rhode Island | Patricia Morgan
| |||||
| Marsha Blackburn |
Tennessee | Tres Wittum
| |||||
| Ted Cruz |
Texas | Holland Gibson Rufus Lopez
| |||||
| Maria Cantwell |
Washington | Raul Garcia Scott Nazarino Isaac Holyk Melanie Ram Charlie Jackson David Tilton Paul Giesick GoodSpaceGuy Thor Amundson Henry Dennison
| |||||
| John Barrasso |
Wyoming | Reid Rasner John Holtz
| |||||
Races without major party competition
When either the Democratic or the Republican Party does not have a candidate running in a particular election, the other party is all but guaranteed to win. In 2024, 38 of 435 U.S. House races (8.7%) lacked major party competition. Inversely, this means that 91.3% of all U.S. House races in 2024 were contested by both the Democratic and the Republican parties.
- Twenty U.S. House races did not have a Democrat running, effectively guaranteeing the seat to Republicans.
- Eighteen U.S. House races did not have a Republican running, effectively guaranteeing the seat to Democrats.
- Eight states had multiple U.S. House races lacking major party competition in 2024: Alabama (three of seven races), California (five of 52 races), Illinois (two of 17 races), Kentucky (two of six races), Massachusetts (seven of nine races), North Carolina (2 of 14 races), Texas (eight of 38 races), and Washington (three of 10 races).
- Six states had a single U.S. House race lacking major party competition in 2024: Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, Oklahoma, and Pennsylvania.
Comparison with one-party races in previous years
The chart below shows a historical comparison of U.S. House races lacking major party competition from 2012 to 2024. Blue bars indicate the number of races featuring only Democrats with no Republican competition and the red bars indicate races with only Republicans. Grey bars show the number of races with major party competition, meaning both Democrats and Republicans ran.
Ballotpedia's analysis found that 91.3% of the races for U.S. House (397 of 435) were contested by members of both major parties.
Democrats were guaranteed 4.1% of seats up (18 out of 435) because no Republicans were running. Democrats ran in 95.4% of U.S. House races (415 out of 435).
Republicans were guaranteed 4.6% of seats up (20 out of 435) because no Democrats were running. Republicans ran in 95.9% of U.S. House races (417 out of 435).
Click [Show] on the table below to view the number and percentage of House races lacking major party competition from 2012 to 2022:
| U.S. House races with one major party candidate, 2012-2022 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | House races without a Democrat (%) | House races without a Republican (%) | Total House races with one major party candidate | ||||
| 2024 | 20 (4.6%) | 18 (4.1%) | 38 (8.7%) | ||||
| 2022 | 23 (5.3%) | 12 (2.8%) | 35 (8.0%) | ||||
| 2020 | 8 (1.8%) | 12 (2.8%) | 20 (4.6%) | ||||
| 2018 | 2 (0.5%) | 36 (8.3%) | 38 (8.7%) | ||||
| 2016 | 26 (6.0%) | 27 (6.2%) | 53 (12.2%) | ||||
| 2014 | 34 (7.8%) | 39 (9.0%) | 73 (16.8%) | ||||
| 2012 | 23 (5.3%) | 18 (4.1%) | 41 (9.4%) | ||||
Terms and definitions
Use the links below to view terms, definitions, and methodologies specific to the three competitiveness criteria:
See also
- United States Congress elections, 2024
- United States Senate elections, 2024
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2024
- Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024
Footnotes
- ↑ Figure includes Sens. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.).
- ↑ Figure includes Rep. Justin Amash (L-Mich.).
- ↑ Figure includes Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.).
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