Texas' 16th Congressional District election, 2020

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Texas' 16th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 9, 2019
Primary: March 3, 2020
Primary runoff: July 14, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Veronica Escobar (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Texas
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Texas' 16th Congressional District
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Texas elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 16th Congressional District of Texas, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Veronica Escobar won election in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 16.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 9, 2019
March 3, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Veronica Escobar, who was first elected in 2018.

Texas' 16th Congressional District is located in the far western portion of the state and includes part of El Paso County.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Texas' 16th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 66.4 64.7
Republican candidate Republican Party 32 35.3
Difference 34.4 29.4

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Texas modified its absentee/mail-in voting, candidate filing, and early voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Local election officials could not reject an absentee ballot due to a perceived signature mismatch unless the voter was given a pre-rejection notice of this finding and a "meaningful opportunity to cure his or her ballot's rejection." Return locations for absentee/mail-in ballots were limited to one per county.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The petition deadline for independent candidates for non-presidential office was extended to August 13, 2020.
  • Early voting: Early voting began on October 13, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 16

Incumbent Veronica Escobar defeated Irene Armendariz-Jackson in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 16 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Veronica Escobar
Veronica Escobar (D)
 
64.7
 
154,108
Image of Irene Armendariz-Jackson
Irene Armendariz-Jackson (R)
 
35.3
 
84,006

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 238,114
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary runoff election

Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 16

Irene Armendariz-Jackson defeated Samuel Williams Jr. in the Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 16 on July 14, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Irene Armendariz-Jackson
Irene Armendariz-Jackson
 
65.4
 
5,170
Image of Samuel Williams Jr.
Samuel Williams Jr. Candidate Connection
 
34.6
 
2,731

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 7,901
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 16

Incumbent Veronica Escobar advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 16 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Veronica Escobar
Veronica Escobar
 
100.0
 
54,910

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 54,910
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 16

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 16 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Samuel Williams Jr.
Samuel Williams Jr. Candidate Connection
 
31.3
 
5,097
✔
Image of Irene Armendariz-Jackson
Irene Armendariz-Jackson
 
25.4
 
4,147
Image of Anthony Aguero
Anthony Aguero Candidate Connection
 
13.4
 
2,184
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Jaime Arriola Jr.
 
13.0
 
2,115
Image of Blanca Ortiz Trout
Blanca Ortiz Trout
 
10.2
 
1,662
Image of Patrick Hernandez-Cigarruista
Patrick Hernandez-Cigarruista
 
6.7
 
1,100

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 16,305
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 16

Ben Leder advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 16 on March 21, 2020.

Candidate
✔
Image of Ben Leder
Ben Leder (L)

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 254 Texas counties—0.4 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Texas 0.48% 1.61% 2.25%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Texas with 52.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 43.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Texas cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 66.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Texas supported Democratic candidates slightly more often than Republicans, 53.3 to 46.7 percent. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Texas. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 54 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 37.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 65 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.4 points. Clinton won 10 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 96 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 85 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 34.5 points.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+17, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 17 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Texas' 16th Congressional District the 80th most Democratic nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.07. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.07 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Veronica Escobar Democratic Party $1,137,105 $1,089,250 $284,855 As of December 31, 2020
Irene Armendariz-Jackson Republican Party $171,497 $156,171 $16,242 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[6]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[7][8][9]

Race ratings: Texas' 16th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 16th Congressional District candidates in Texas in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Texas, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Texas 16th Congressional District Democratic or Republican N/A N/A $3,125.00 Fixed number 12/9/2019 Source
Texas 16th Congressional District Unaffiliated 500 5% of all votes cast for governor in the district in the last election; not to exceed 500 N/A N/A 12/9/2019 (declaration of intent); 8/13/2020 (final filing deadline) Source

District election history

2018

See also: Texas' 16th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 16

Veronica Escobar defeated Rick Seeberger and Ben Mendoza in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 16 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Veronica Escobar
Veronica Escobar (D)
 
68.5
 
124,437
Image of Rick Seeberger
Rick Seeberger (R)
 
27.0
 
49,127
Image of Ben Mendoza
Ben Mendoza (Independent)
 
4.5
 
8,147
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
43

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 181,754
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 16

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 16 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Veronica Escobar
Veronica Escobar
 
61.4
 
30,630
Image of Dori Fenenbock
Dori Fenenbock
 
22.0
 
10,992
Image of Norma Chavez
Norma Chavez
 
6.7
 
3,325
Image of Enrique Garcia
Enrique Garcia
 
5.3
 
2,661
Image of Jerome Tilghman
Jerome Tilghman
 
3.0
 
1,489
Image of John Carrillo
John Carrillo
 
1.5
 
771

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 49,868
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 16

Rick Seeberger defeated Alia Garcia-Ureste in the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 16 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Rick Seeberger
Rick Seeberger
 
69.3
 
7,273
Image of Alia Garcia-Ureste
Alia Garcia-Ureste
 
30.7
 
3,216

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 10,489
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Texas' 16th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Beto O'Rourke (D) defeated Jaime Perez (L) and Mary Gourdoux (G) in the general election on November 8, 2016. O'Rourke defeated Ben Mendoza in the Democratic primary on March 1, 2016. No Republicans filed to run in the race.[10][11]

U.S. House, Texas District 16 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBeto O'Rourke Incumbent 85.7% 150,228
     Libertarian Jaime Perez 10% 17,491
     Green Mary Gourdoux 4.3% 7,510
Total Votes 175,229
Source: Texas Secretary of State


U.S. House, Texas District 16 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngBeto O'Rourke Incumbent 85.6% 40,051
Ben Mendoza 14.4% 6,749
Total Votes 46,800
Source: Texas Secretary of State

2014

See also: Texas' 16th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 16th Congressional District of Texas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Beto O'Rourke (D) defeated Corey Roen (R) and Jaime Perez (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Texas District 16 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBeto O'Rourke Incumbent 67.5% 49,338
     Republican Corey Roen 29.2% 21,324
     Libertarian Jaime Perez 3.3% 2,443
Total Votes 73,105
Source: Texas Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Texas Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed July 24, 2012
  2. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  4. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  5. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  6. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  7. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  8. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  9. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  10. ↑ Texas Secretary of State, "2016 March Primary Election Candidate Filings by County," accessed December 15, 2015
  11. ↑ The New York Times, "Texas Primary Results," March 1, 2016


Texas' current delegation to the United States Congress
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