New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024

	← 2022
New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District
	Democratic primary; Republican primary; General election
Election details
	Filing deadline: Candidates seeking pre-primary designation February 6, 2024; All other candidates March 12, 2024
	Primary: June 4, 2024; General: November 5, 2024
How to vote
	Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.; Voting in New Mexico
Race ratings
	Cook Political Report: Toss-up; DDHQ and The Hill: Likely Democratic; Inside Elections: Lean Democratic; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
	U.S. Senate battlegrounds; U.S. House battlegrounds; Federal and state primary competitiveness; Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
See also
	New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District; U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd; New Mexico elections, 2024; U.S. Congress elections, 2024; U.S. Senate elections, 2024; U.S. House elections, 2024; Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

New Mexico 2024 elections

U.S. Senate • U.S. House • State executive offices • State Senate • State House • Supreme court • Appellate courts • State ballot measures • Local ballot measures • Municipal • All other local • How to run for office

Incumbent Gabriel Vasquez (D) defeated Yvette Herrell (R) in the general election for New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District on Nov. 5, 2024.

This election was a rematch of the 2022 election, which Vasquez won by a 1,350-vote margin out of more than 192,000 votes cast. Vasquez was one of 46 House Democrats elected in 2022 by a margin of ten percentage points or less and one of four to win election by less than one percentage point. Before the election, four major election forecasters differed in their ratings for the general election, with forecasts ranging from Likely Democratic to toss-up. Based on post-general election reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Vasquez raised $7.01 million and spent $6.95 million and Herrell raised $4.45 million and spent $4.50 million. To review all the campaign finance figures in full detail, click here.

Vasquez was a former city councilor, newspaper editor, and nonprofit executive. Vasquez said he was running "to be a champion for working families and to build an economy that benefits everyone."^[1] Vasquez said Herrell was among the "extremist politicians who take orders from party leaders instead of us...I'll stand up to any party leader."^[2]

Herrell was, as of the 2024 election, a business owner and former state legislator who represented the district from 2021 to 2023. Herrell said she was running to be "a champion for hardworking New Mexicans, protecting our freedoms, and always putting New Mexico first."^[3] Herrell said Vasquez was "a radical in our Capitol...Gabe is bankrolled by the same people who are funding the anti-Israel protests."^[4]

The outcome of this race affected the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. All 435 House districts were up for election.

At the time of the election, Republicans held a 220-212 majority with three vacancies.^[5] As a result of the election, Republicans retained control of the U.S. House, winning 220 seats to Democrats' 215.^[6] To read more about the 2024 U.S. House elections, click here.

In the 2022 election in this district, the Democratic candidate won 50.3%-49.6%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have defeated Donald Trump (R) 51.9%-46.1%.^[7]

This was one of 13 districts won by Donald Trump (R) in the 2024 presidential election and by a Democratic candidate in the U.S. House election. To read more, click here.

New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District was one of 37 congressional districts with a Democratic incumbent or an open seat that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) targeted in 2024. To read about NRCC targeting initiatives, click here. For a complete list of NRCC targeted districts, click here.

For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House New Mexico District 2

Incumbent Gabriel Vasquez defeated Yvette Herrell in the general election for U.S. House New Mexico District 2 on November 5, 2024.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Gabriel Vasquez (D)	52.1	138,177
	Yvette Herrell (R)	47.9	127,145

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 265,322
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 2

Incumbent Gabriel Vasquez advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 2 on June 4, 2024.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Gabriel Vasquez	100.0	29,613

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 29,613
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 2

Yvette Herrell advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 2 on June 4, 2024.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Yvette Herrell	100.0	23,216

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 23,216
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Voting information

See also: Voting in New Mexico

Election information in New Mexico: Nov. 5, 2024, election.

What was the voter registration deadline?

In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
By mail: Postmarked by Oct. 8, 2024
Online: Oct. 8, 2024

Was absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

Yes

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

In-person: Oct. 22, 2024
By mail: Received by Oct. 22, 2024
Online: Oct. 22, 2024

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
By mail: Received by Nov. 5, 2024

Was early voting available to all voters?

Yes

What were the early voting start and end dates?

Oct. 8, 2024 to Nov. 2, 2024

Were all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, was a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When were polls open on Election Day?

7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. (MST)

Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Gabriel Vasquez

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: Yes

Political Office:

U.S. House New Mexico District 2 (Assumed office: 2023)
Las Cruces, New Mexico, City Council (2017–2021)

Biography: Vasquez received a bachelor's degree from New Mexico State University. Vasquez worked as a newspaper editor, a staffer for U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), and as a nonprofit executive, including serving as executive director of the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce of Las Cruces.

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Vasquez said he was running "to be a champion for working families and to build an economy that benefits everyone." Vasquez said his policy priorities if re-elected would be to encourage job creation, address the cost of living, expand access to healthcare, combat climate change, and conserve public lands for outdoor recreation.

Vasquez described Herrell as among a group of "extremist politicians who take orders from party leaders instead of us." Vasquez said that, in contrast, he would "stand up to any party leader."

Vasquez said he had a record of serving the district, including his time in elected office as well as working in nonprofits and as a staffer to U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D).

Show sources

Sources: Gabriel Vasquez 2024 campaign website, "Meet Gabe," accessed August 27, 2024; YouTube, "Gabe Vasquez for Congress: Deserves Better on August 30, 2022," accessed August 27, 2024; Biographical Directory of the United States Congress, "VASQUEZ, Gabriel," accessed August 27, 2024

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House New Mexico District 2 in 2024.

Yvette Herrell

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office:

U.S. House New Mexico District 2 (2021–2023)
New Mexico House of Representatives District 51 (2011–2019)

Biography: Herrell received an associate's degree from ITT Educational Services, Inc. Herrell worked as a realtor, legislative analyst, and business owner.

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Herrell said she had a record of creating jobs as a business owner and supporting businesses as a legislator and described herself as "a champion for hardworking New Mexicans, protecting our freedoms, and always putting New Mexico first."

Herrell said she supported policies that she said would keep Americans safe: "Radical woke elites in Washington want to defund the police and let China dictate how we live our lives. We the people have had enough, it's time we change course and hold those who do us harm accountable for their actions, foreign and domestic."

Herrell said she would strengthen the economy, ensure residents of the district were safe, ensure the government focused on middle-class families when evaluating new policies, and promote New Mexico values.

Show sources

Sources: Yvette Herrell 2024 campaign website, "Meet Yvette," accessed August 27, 2024; Yvette Herrell 2024 campaign website, "Shared Values," accessed September 10, 2024; Biographical Directory of the United States Congress, "HERRELL, Yvette," accessed August 27, 2024; Yvette Herrell 2024 campaign website, "Meet Yvette," accessed August 27, 2024

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House New Mexico District 2 in 2024.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

No candidate in this race completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey.

Campaign advertisements

This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.

Gabriel Vasquez

View more ads here:

Facebook

Yvette Herrell

August 19, 2024

May 14, 2024

November 20, 2023

View more ads here:

Election competitiveness

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.^[8] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."^[9] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.

Below we provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation. We only report polls for which we can find a margin of error or credibility interval.

New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District, 2024: general election polls
Poll	Date	Vasquez	Herrell	Undecided/Other	Margin of error	Sample size^[10]	Sponsor^[11]
Emerson College	Aug. 20–22, 2024	50%	41%	9%	±5.8%	283 RV	Nexstar Media/The Hill
Tarrance Group	Jul. 11–14, 2024	46%	48%	6%	±4.9%	400 LV	Yvette Herrell/National Republican Congressional Committee
SurveyUSA	Sept. 6–12, 2023	45%	46%	9%	±4.8%	541 LV	KOB-TV Albuquerque

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.^[12]
Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.^[13]^[14]^[15]

Race ratings: New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024
Race tracker	Race ratings
	November 5, 2024	October 29, 2024	October 22, 2024	October 15, 2024
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill	Likely Democratic	Likely Democratic	Likely Democratic	Likely Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Lean Democratic	Tilt Democratic	Tilt Democratic	Tilt Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean Democratic	Lean Democratic	Lean Democratic	Lean Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

Ballotpedia researchers did not identify any candidate websites that provide endorsement information. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.

Election spending

Campaign finance

Name

Party

Receipts*

Disbursements**

Cash on hand

Date

Gabriel Vasquez

Democratic Party

$7,040,626

$7,024,318

$39,085

As of December 31, 2024

Yvette Herrell

Republican Party

$4,475,628

$4,563,150

$19,584

As of December 31, 2024

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.^[16]^[17]^[18]

If available, this section includes links to online resources tracking satellite spending in this election. To notify us of a resource to add, email us.

By candidate	By election
Gabriel Vasquez Yvette Herrell	Open Secrets Federal Election Commission

District analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.

District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.

District map

State party control

Below was the map in use at the time of the election. Click the map below to enlarge it.

See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in New Mexico.

New Mexico U.S. House competitiveness, 2014-2024
Office	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested Democratic primaries	Contested Republican primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
2024	3	3	0	7	6	0	1	16.7%	0	0.0%
2022	3	3	0	8	6	1	1	33.3%	0	0.0%
2020	3	3	1	19	6	1	3	66.7%	0	0.0%
2018	3	3	2	15	6	2	1	50.0%	0	0.0%
2016	3	3	0	7	6	0	1	16.7%	0	0.0%
2014	3	3	0	8	6	1	1	33.3%	1	33.3%

Post-filing deadline analysis

The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in New Mexico in 2024. Information below was calculated on March 18, 2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.

Seven candidates filed to run for New Mexico’s three U.S. House districts, including three Democrats and four Republicans. That's 2.3 candidates per district, less than in the previous three election cycles. There were 2.67 candidates per district in 2022, 6.3 candidates per district in 2020, and five in 2018.

No seats were open in 2024, meaning all incumbents ran for re-election. There was one House seat open in 2020 and two in 2018, the only two election cycles this decade in which House seats were open.

Three candidates filed to run for New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, the most candidates who ran for a district in 2024. The candidates included Democratic incumbent Melanie Ann Stansbury and two Republicans.

The Republican primary in the 1st Congressional District was the only contested primary, tying with 2016 as the fewest this decade. Between 2014 and 2022, an average of 2.4 primaries were contested.

No incumbents faced primary challengers in 2024. The last year an incumbent was in a contested primary was 2014, when then-incumbent Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D) and Robert Blanch ran in the 3rd Congressional District.

Candidates filed to run in the Republican and Democratic primaries in all three districts, meaning no seats were guaranteed to either party.

Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+1. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made New Mexico's 2nd the 204th most Democratic district nationally.^[19]

2020 presidential election results

The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

2020 presidential results in New Mexico's 2nd based on 2024 district lines
Joe Biden	Donald Trump
51.9%	46.1%

Inside Elections Baselines

See also: Inside Elections

Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.^[20] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.

Inside Elections Baseline for 2024
Democratic Baseline	Republican Baseline	Difference
52.0	46.1	D+5.9

Presidential voting history

See also: Presidential election in New Mexico, 2020

New Mexico presidential election results (1900-2020)

16 Democratic wins
12 Republican wins

Year	1900	1904	1908	1912	1916	1920	1924	1928	1932	1936	1940	1944	1948	1952	1956	1960	1964	1968	1972	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016	2020
Winning Party	N/A	N/A	N/A	D	D	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	R	D	D	D	D

See also: Party control of New Mexico state government

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of New Mexico's congressional delegation as of May 2024.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from New Mexico
Party	U.S. Senate	U.S. House	Total
Democratic	2	3	5
Republican	0	0	0
Independent	0	0	0
Vacancies	0	0	0
Total	2	3	5

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in New Mexico's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.

State executive officials in New Mexico, May 2024
Office	Officeholder
Governor	Michelle Lujan Grisham
Lieutenant Governor	Howie Morales
Secretary of State	Maggie Toulouse Oliver
Attorney General	Raul Torrez

State legislature

New Mexico State Senate

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	27
	Republican Party	15
	Independent	0
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		42

New Mexico House of Representatives

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	45
	Republican Party	25
	Independent	0
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		70

Trifecta control

The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.

New Mexico Party Control: 1992-2024
Seventeen years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Governor	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D
Senate	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D
House	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D

Voter registration

As of the end of August 2024, there were 416,869 registered voters in the 2nd Congressional District. Of those, 41% were registered Democrats, 31% were registered Republicans, 1% were registered Libertarians, and 26% were independent or registered with other parties. Compared to statewide voter registration totals, the 2nd District had two percentage points more independent or other-party voters and two percentage points fewer Democratic voters.^[21]

At the same point in the 2022 election cycle, there were 412,028 registered voters in the 2nd District. Democrats made up 43% of registered voters—two percentage points higher than in 2024. Independent or other voters made up 25% of district registration—one percentage point lower than in 2024.^[22] Democrats' 43%–31% registration advantage over Republicans held through Election Day 2022.^[23] That year, Vasquez (D) defeated Herrell (R) 50.3%–49.6%.

Between August 2022 and August 2024, the overall number of registered voters in the 2nd District increased by 1.17%. The number of Democratic voters decreased by 2.79%. All other voter affiliations grew during that time period, with the number of Libertarians increasing by 6.73%, the number of independent or other-party voters increasing by 5.70%, and the number of Republicans increasing by 2.85%.

The following table includes voter registration statistics for 2022 and 2024 as of the end of August as well as an overview of the change in voter registration between the two cycles. The shaded row at the bottom of the table lists 2022 election results for reference.

New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District: voter registration and election results, 2022–2024
Year	Democrats	Republicans	Libertarians	Independent/other	Total
Voter registration: 2022 to 2024	-2.79% (-4,950)	+2.85% (+27,726)	+6.73% (+295)	+5.70% (+5,876)	+1.17% (+4,841)
Voter registration: August 2024	41.39% (172,559)	31.36% (130,740)	1.12% (4,680)	26.12% (108,890)	416,869
Voter registration: August 2022	43.08% (177,509)	30.85% (103,014)	1.06% (4,385)	25.00% (103,014)	412,028
Election results: 2022	50.3% (97,037)^[24]	49.6% (95,636)	N/A	N/A	192,673

Election context

Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in New Mexico in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in New Mexico, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024
State	Office	Party	Signatures required	Filing fee	Filing deadline	Source
New Mexico	U.S. House	Democratic	835^[25]	N/A	2/6/2024 if seeking pre-primary designation; 3/12/2024 if not	Source
New Mexico	U.S. House	Libertarian	88^[25]	N/A	2/6/2024 if seeking pre-primary designation; 3/12/2024 if not	Source
New Mexico	U.S. House	Republican	783^[25]	N/A	2/6/2024 if seeking pre-primary designation; 3/12/2024 if not	Source
New Mexico	U.S. House	Unaffiliated	4,715^[25]	N/A	6/27/2024	Source

District election history

The section below details election results for this office in elections dating back to 2018.