United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018

Elections in North Dakota, 2018

• General election: Nov. 6
• Voter registration deadline: N/A (no formal registration process)
• Early voting: Sept. 27 - Nov. 5
• Absentee voting deadline: Postmark Nov. 5

• Online registration: N/A
• Same-day registration: N/A
• Voter ID: ID required
• Poll times: Varies according to the size of the precinct

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On the ballot: U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Attorney General • Secretary of State • State executive offices • State Senate • State House • Supreme court • Local judges • State ballot measures • Local ballot measures • Recalls • Democratic primaries • Republican primaries

2022 → ← 2016
U.S. Senate, North Dakota
Democratic primary Republican primary General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 9, 2018
Primary: June 12, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Heidi Heitkamp (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: Open between 7 a.m. to 9 a.m.; close between 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. Voting in North Dakota
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican Inside Elections: Lean Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate, North Dakota U.S. Senate • At-large North Dakota elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 Arizona U.S. Senate raceCalifornia U.S. Senate raceConnecticut U.S. Senate raceDelaware U.S. Senate raceFlorida U.S. Senate raceHawaii U.S. Senate raceIndiana U.S. Senate raceMaine U.S. Senate raceMaryland U.S. Senate raceMassachusetts U.S. Senate raceMichigan U.S. Senate raceMinnesota U.S. Senate raceMinnesota U.S. Senate race (special)Mississippi U.S. Senate raceMississippi U.S. Senate race (special)Missouri U.S. Senate raceMontana U.S. Senate raceNebraska U.S. Senate raceNevada U.S. Senate raceNew Jersey U.S. Senate raceNew Mexico U.S. Senate raceNew York U.S. Senate raceNorth Dakota U.S. Senate raceOhio U.S. Senate racePennsylvania U.S. Senate raceRhode Island U.S. Senate raceTennessee U.S. Senate raceTexas U.S. Senate raceUtah U.S. Senate raceVermont U.S. Senate raceVirginia U.S. Senate raceWashington U.S. Senate raceWest Virginia U.S. Senate raceWisconsin U.S. Senate raceWyoming U.S. Senate raceSubmit

U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) defeated incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) in the November 6, 2018, general election to represent North Dakota in the United States Senate.

Heitkamp was first elected in 2012, winning by 1 percentage point. Donald Trump (R) won the state by 36 points in the 2016 presidential election. While the state voted for the Republican presidential nominee in the five elections from 2000 to 2016, Trump's was the largest margin of victory. The Hill listed this seat as the most likely Senate seat to flip in 2018.

Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.

For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Candidates and election results

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. Senate North Dakota

Kevin Cramer defeated incumbent Heidi Heitkamp in the general election for U.S. Senate North Dakota on November 6, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Kevin Cramer (R)	55.1	179,720
		Heidi Heitkamp (D)	44.3	144,376
		Other/Write-in votes	0.6	2,042

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	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 326,138 (100.00% precincts reporting)
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate North Dakota

Incumbent Heidi Heitkamp advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate North Dakota on June 12, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Heidi Heitkamp	100.0	36,729

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	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 36,729
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Dustin David Peyer (D)

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate North Dakota

Kevin Cramer defeated Thomas O'Neill in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate North Dakota on June 12, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Kevin Cramer	87.9	61,529
	Submit photo	Thomas O'Neill	12.1	8,509

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 70,038
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Gary Emineth (R)

Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages

Kevin Cramer, U.S. representative for North Dakota's At-Large District

Party: Republican

Incumbent: No

Political office: U.S. representative from North Dakota (2013-2019); Public service commissioner (2003-2013)

Biography: Kevin Cramer received a bachelor's degree from Concordia College and a master's degree from the University of Mary. He chaired the North Dakota Republican Party from 1991 to 1993. He served in Gov. Ed Schafer's (R) cabinet as state tourism director from 1993 to 1997 and as state economic development & finance director from 1997 to 2000.

Key messages

• Cramer highlighted his endorsement by Pres. Trump and said he had a consistent record of supporting conservative policies.

• Cramer emphasized areas where Heitkamp voted with most Democrats and against Trump's policies, including her votes against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and withholding federal grants from sanctuary jurisdictions.

• Cramer linked the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act to measures of economic growth, emphasizing that he voted for the legislation.

Heidi Heitkamp, U.S. senator from North Dakota

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: Yes

Political office: U.S. senator from North Dakota (Assumed office: 2013); Former state attorney general (1993-2000); Former state tax commissioner (1986-1993)

Biography: Heidi Heitkamp received a bachelor's degree from the University of North Dakota and a J.D. from Lewis & Clark Law School. Heitkamp worked as an attorney and as a consultant. She was an Environmental Protection Agency attorney and director of a synfuels plant based in North Dakota.

Key messages

• Heitkamp said her voting record demonstrated independence from party lines. She stated that she had voted with Trump 50 percent of the time.

• Heitkamp said that Cramer would vote the Republican Party line. She criticized Cramer for supporting Trump's trade tariffs and said he voted to remove health insurance coverage protections for people with pre-existing conditions.

• She referred to her experience growing up in a working-class family as grounding her efforts to prevent cuts to pensions, Medicare, and Social Security and to further paid family leave legislation.

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, Cramer (R) v. Heitkamp (D)
Poll	Poll sponsor	Cramer	Heitkamp	Undecided	Margin of error	Sample size
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) October 27-30, 2018	FOX News	51%	42%	4%	+/-3	789
Strategic Research Associates October 12-19, 2018	Gray TV	56%	40%	4%	+/-3.8	650
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) Sept. 28-Oct. 2, 2018	FOX News	53%	41%	3%	+/-3.5	704
Strategic Research Associates September 17-27, 2018	Gray TV	51%	41%	8%	+/-3.8	650
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) September 8-11, 2018	FOX News	48%	44%	6%	+/-3.5	701
Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy June 13-15, 2018	N/A	48%	44%	8%	+/-4	625
AVERAGES		51.17%	42%	5.5%	+/-3.6	686.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected].

Click [show] to view polling conducted before the June 12, 2018, primary.

U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, Campbell (R) v. Heitkamp (D) (hypothetical match-up) Poll Tom Campbell (R) Heidi Heitkamp (D) Other Margin of Error Sample Size 1892 Polling October 11-12, 2017 44% 41% 15% +/-4.9 500 1892 Polling May 30-June 1, 2017 37% 43% 20% +/-4.9 500 Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected] U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, Republican primary Poll Tom Campbell (R) Rick Berg (R) Other candidate(s) Undecided Margin of Error Sample Size 1892 Polling October 11-12, 2017 32% 34% 9% 35% +/-4.0 400 1892 Polling May 30-June 1, 2017 7% 39% 9% 45% +/-4.0 400 Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected]

PredictIt Prices

This section provides the PredictIt market prices for this race during the three months leading up to the election. PredictIt is a site where people make and trade predictions on political and financial events. Market prices reflect the probability, based on PredictIt users' predictions, that a candidate will win a race. For example, a market price of $0.60 for Candidate A is equivalent to a 60 percent probability that Candidate A will win.

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
Heidi Heitkamp	Democratic Party	$31,525,752	$25,186,790	$6,483,856	As of December 31, 2018
Kevin Cramer	Republican Party	$6,031,116	$6,231,101	$195,522	As of December 31, 2018
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." ** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

October 1-17, 2018

Heitkamp reported $12.6 million in receipts in the first two-and-a-half weeks of October. Before October, she had raised $12.8 million throughout the 2018 election cycle. Heitkamp's campaign reported $11.1 million on hand as of October 17.

Cramer reported $630,000 in receipts from October 1 through October 17. He had raised $4,954,357 through September 30. Cramer's campaign reported $976,046 on hand as of October 17.

Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

• America First Action super PAC spent $980,000 on a September 25 ad opposing Heitkamp on immigration policy.

• Americans for Prosperity (AFP)
  • AFP released a digital ad campaign praising Heitkamp for supporting a bill loosening some financial regulations under Dodd-Frank in May 2018.
  • Americans for Prosperity (AFP) launched a $450,000 digital and television ad buy against Heitkamp in March 2018, criticizing her for voting against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and allegedly taking contributions from special interest groups and providing them with incentives.

• The political action committee Majority Forward spent an estimated $357,000 on media buys in opposition to Cramer between August 29 and 31.
  • The group spent an additional $830,000 on media opposing Cramer through October 3.

• The National Republican Senatorial Committee spent a total of $3.1 million on ads opposing Heitkamp and supporting Cramer through October.

• The Republican Jewish Coalition reported spending $833,997 on an ad opposing Heitkamp on September 8.

• The Senate Leadership Fund spent $3.1 million through November 3 on media opposing Heitkamp and on media and other activities supporting Cramer.

• Senate Majority PAC (SMP) spent a total of $3.9 million on media opposing Cramer and supporting Heitkamp through October.

• VoteVets.org spent $270,000 on an ad buy in July criticizing Cramer for statements he made about military spending and his vote against an amendment to the 2016 National Defense Authorization Act to increase service members' monthly pay by 2.3 percent and require that servicemembers be paid during lapses in government funding.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

• Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
• Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
• Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.
• Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, 2018
Race tracker	Race ratings
	October 30, 2018	October 23, 2018	October 16, 2018	October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Toss-up	Toss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Lean Republican	Tilt Republican	Tilt Republican	Tilt Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Toss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.

Noteworthy general election endorsements
Endorsement	Kevin Cramer	Heidi Heitkamp
Elected officials
President Donald Trump	✔
Individuals
Former Vice President Joe Biden		✔
Former Sec. of Defense/Senator Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.)		✔
Newspapers
Minot Daily News	✔
Organizations
National Border Patrol Council		✔

Timeline

• November 1, 2018: Former Vice Pres. Joe Biden (D) campaigned for Heitkamp in Fargo.

• October 30, 2018: A poll showed Cramer leading Heitkamp by 9 percentage points.

• October 26, 2018: Heitkamp and Cramer participated in a second debate.

• October 25, 2018: Campaign finance reports showed Heitkamp almost doubled her fundraising in the first weeks of October, raising $12.6 million during this time.

• October 23, 2018: Former Secretary of Defense and Senator Chuck Hagel, a Republican, endorsed Heitkamp and campaigned for her in Bismarck, discussing her record on veterans issues.

• October 19, 2018: A poll showed Cramer leading Heitkamp by 16 percentage points.

• October 18, 2018: Cramer and Heitkamp participated in the first debate of the race. Learn more below.

• October 7, 2018: Heitkamp released an ad stating why she voted against the confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court on October 6.

• September 27, 2018: A poll showed Cramer ahead of Heitkamp by 10 points; two earlier polls showed him leading by 4 points, within or near the polls' margins of error.

• September 26, 2018: The National Republican Senatorial Committee spent a total of $2.5 million on ads opposing Heitkamp through this date.

• September 7, 2018: President Donald Trump attended and spoke at a private fundraiser for Cramer's campaign.

• August 31, 2018: Senate Majority PAC spent $2.6 million on ads opposing Cramer through August.

• June 27, 2018: Trump spoke at a rally with Cramer on June 27.

• June 12, 2018: Heitkamp released an ad describing herself as independent of party lines. "I voted over half the time with President Trump and that made a lot of people in Washington mad. But when I agree with him, I vote with him. And if his policies hurt North Dakota, he knows I'll speak up," she said. The ad was part of a six-figure digital and television campaign.

• May 14, 2018: The Cramer campaign released an ad highlighting Heitkamp's support for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. "Hillary lost but Heidi remains a reliable vote for these liberal ideas: repealing your tax cut, keeping Obamacare, permitting late-term abortions," the narrator said.

• March 27, 2018: Vice President Mike Pence (R) attended a fundraiser for Cramer in North Dakota.

• March 26, 2018: Senate Majority PAC made a $400,000 ad buy to defend Heitkamp following the AFP purchase. "When out-of-state billionaires start running false negative ads against Heidi Heitkamp, she must be doing something right," the ad's narrator said.

• March 20, 2018: Americans for Prosperity (AFP) launched a $450,000 digital and television ad buy against Heitkamp, criticizing her for voting against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and allegedly taking contributions from special interest groups and providing them with incentives.

Policy stances

This section summarizes candidate positions on select policy issues discussed over the course of the election. If you are aware of a significant policy issue in this race, please email us.

Trade

In August 2018, Cramer criticized Heitkamp for opposing the Trump administration's policy on trade and for bringing North Dakota farmers to the Mexican Embassy in June 2018 to discuss trade. He said, "Tariffs aren’t my highest priority in life. I prefer a more measured approach, but this is the approach the president chose and as long as that’s the strategy of our country, I think we should do the best to be supportive of it. Not undermine it and not become an enemy of our own country, for crying out loud, by running to the Mexican Embassy or talking to your favorite European politician or member of Parliament about how we can undo the president’s strategy, but rather supporting it or showing a unified front, which gives him the strength he needs to get the best deal he can possibly get.”

Heitkamp opposed the Trump administration's decision to impose a 25 percent tariff on up to $50 billion of Chinese goods. She said, “No one wants China to cheat on trade, but there’s a smarter way to enforce trade laws than tariffs that will cause China to slap taxes on North Dakota goods like soybeans. A better way to deal with China would be focusing on trade enforcement to create a level playing field for American farmers, ranchers, and manufacturers. Instead, the administration is asking U.S. agriculture producers to take a hit when they can least afford it. That’s bad news for North Dakota and further uncertainty for our farmers. We need smart trade policies that expand access to our biggest markets instead of closing the door to exporting our products, and I’ll continue press leaders in this administration about how its trade policies are hurting North Dakota.”

Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Kevin Cramer

Support

"Farms" - Cramer campaign ad, released October 29, 2018

"Burgum/Hoeven Endorsement" - Cramer campaign ad, released October 28, 2018

"Faith" - Cramer campaign ad, released October 27, 2018

"Rachel & Annie" - Cramer campaign ad, released October 27, 2018

"A Rated" - NRSC ad, released October 17, 2018

"Coffee" - Cramer campaign ad, released October 15, 2018

"Parade" - Cramer campaign ad, released October 8, 2018

"Jobs" - Cramer campaign ad, released October 1, 2018

"Rocket Ship Economy" - Cramer campaign ad, released September 24, 2018

"All the Above Energy" - Cramer campaign ad, released September 18, 2018

"Heidi's Latest Misleading Ad" - Cramer campaign ad, released September 14, 2018

"Sanctuary Cities" - Cramer campaign ad, released August 19, 2018

"Heidi's Moo Steak" - Cramer campaign ad, released August 13, 2018

"Tax Cut" - Cramer campaign ad, released June 12, 2018

Oppose

"What Happens" - Senate Majority PAC ad, released October 29, 2018

"A Lot of Pain" - Senate Majority PAC ad, released October 23, 2018

"Own Words" - Heitkamp campaign ad, released October 20, 2018

"Count On" - Senate Majority PAC ad, released October 15, 2018

"Arm Wrestling" - Heitkamp campaign ad, released October 5, 2018

"Hysterical" - Majority Forward PAC ad, released October 3, 2018

"Give Yourself" - Heitkamp campaign ad, released September 26, 2018

"Blame" - Heitkamp campaign ad, released September 14, 2018

"Let" - Majority Forward PAC ad, released September 6, 2018

"Denise" - Heitkamp campaign ad, released August 16, 2018

"Steaks" - Senate Majority PAC ad, released July 30, 2018

"Cuts" - Senate Majority PAC ad, released July 2, 2018

"Camo" - Senate Majority PAC ad, released June 12, 2018

• Heitkamp released a digital ad criticizing Cramer regarding health insurance coverage protections for people with pre-existing conditions. The ad can be viewed here.

Heidi Heitkamp

Support

"Kegger" - Heitkamp campaign ad, released October 23, 2018

"Melanie" - Heitkamp campaign ad, released October 19, 2018

"Every Day" - Heitkamp campaign ad, released October 10, 2018

"For Our Country" - Heitkamp campaign ad, released October 7, 2018

"Inspiration" - Heitkamp campaign ad, released September 26, 2018

"Truck Driver" - Heitkamp campaign ad, released September 7, 2018

"Top 10" - Heitkamp campaign ad, released June 22, 2018

"Answer" - Heitkamp campaign ad, released June 12, 2018

"Laundry" - Heitkamp campaign ad, released April 24, 2018

Oppose

"Top 5" - Senate Leadership Fund ad, released October 30, 2018

"Heidary" - National Republican Senatorial Committee ad, released October 2, 2018

"Did Nothing" - National Republican Republican Party ad, released October 2, 2018

"Beth" - National Republican Senatorial Committee ad, released September 25, 2018

"Sanctuary" - America First Action super PAC ad, released September 25, 2018

"Politics at its Worst" - National Republican Republican Party ad, released September 19, 2018

"Syl" - Senate Leadership Fund ad, released September 18, 2018

"Rubber Stamp" - Senate Leadership Fund ad, released September 15, 2018

"Trump ND" - National Republican Senatorial Committee ad, released September 13, 2018

"Roots" - Republican Jewish Coalition ad, released September 9, 2018

"Respecting Life" - Cramer campaign ad, released September 4, 2018

"Heidi's Choice" - National Republican Senatorial Committee ad, released August 1, 2018

"Vets Duty" - One Nation ad, released July 24, 2018

"Production" - National Republican Senatorial Committee ad, released July 23, 2018

"Trump ad" - National Republican Senatorial Committee and Cramer for Senate ad, released July 13, 2018

"Heidi's Hiding" - National Republican Senatorial Committee ad, released July 13, 2018

"High Five Heidi" - National Republican Senatorial Committee ad, released March 5, 2018

"Heidi Heitkamp Turned Her Back on North Dakotans" - Americans for Prosperity ad, released March 20, 2018

Noteworthy events

Brett Kavanaugh confirmation vote

See also: Supreme Court vacancy, 2018: An overview

On October 6, 2018, the U.S. Senate voted to confirm the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. Fifty senators voted to confirm Kavanaugh's nomination, 48 voted against, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) voted present. A simple majority was required to confirm Kavanaugh.

Heitkamp voted against Kavanaugh's confirmation on October 6, 2018. She said her decision was based on a hearing held the week prior regarding sexual misconduct allegations against Kavanaugh. Her statement read, "In addition to the concerns about his past conduct, last Thursday’s hearing called into question Judge Kavanaugh’s current temperament, honesty, and impartiality. These are critical traits for any nominee to serve on the highest court in our country."

Cramer said in a statement after Heitkamp announced her decision, "I’m deeply disappointed with Senator Heitkamp’s decision to vote no on Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court. Clearly, she has decided to vote with Chuck Schumer, and not the people of North Dakota."

Misidentification of abuse survivors in open letter

On October 14, 2018, the Heitkamp campaign published an ad in several North Dakota newspapers featuring an open letter said to be signed by more than 100 survivors of domestic violence, sexual assault, and rape, challenging Cramer for comments he made critical of the #MeToo movement. After its release, several women identified in the letter said their names were included without their permission or knowledge or that they were not survivors of abuse.

Heitkamp released a statement on October 16, 2018, apologizing for the error. She said, "We recently discovered that several of the women's names who were provided to us did not authorize their names to be shared or were not survivors of abuse. I deeply regret this mistake and we are in the process of issuing a retraction, personally apologizing to each of the people impacted by this and taking the necessary steps to ensure this never happens again."

Cramer said the letter was a "revictimization of victims," in an interview with the Associated Press. "This is what happens when desperate people do things for their own personal political gain,” Cramer said.

Debates and forums

• October 26, 2018: A second debate took place between Heitkamp and Cramer. Read an overview of the debate here.

• October 18, 2018: Cramer and Heitkamp participated in a debate at Bismarck State College. Watch a video of the event here.

Campaign themes

Kevin Cramer

The following were found on Cramer's 2018 campaign website.

“	Tax cuts good for North Dakota I've always stood in support of pro-growth economic policies that empower taxpayers and get the government out of the way and out of your pocket. That’s why I voted for the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act in 2017. Thousands of North Dakotans are benefiting from the tax cuts which gave 90 percent of North Dakota taxpayers more money in their paychecks, provided businesses with the certainty they needed to create new jobs, and offered families the economic relief they deserve. The results of the tax cut have been stunning. In May, our nation’s unemployment rate hit its lowest point in 18 years and the U.S. economy added 223,000 new jobs. This is what a pro-growth agenda delivers! National Security I believe America leads best when it leads from a position of strength. Our enemies must know our resolve is ironclad and we will not back down in the face of aggression or terror. For these reasons, I support holding Iran accountable and doing what it takes to prevent the Ayatollah and his regime from acquiring nuclear weapons and threatening our country and our allies. I support the actions of the administration regarding Syria, using punitive, surgical strikes when necessary to demonstrate that America will not stand idly by when chemical weapons of mass murder are unleashed on innocent civilians. I support a tough approach to the Kim regime in North Korea that leads to conclusive denuclearization. All options must be on the table to ensure the stability of the Indo-Pacific region for our many allies there, as well as its status as a major commercial corridor. Beyond this, ensuring our homeland's own national security is our most important responsibility in government. That's why I support enhanced vetting, to make sure bad actors and security threats are not allowed access into to the United States. Regulatory reform creates job and economic growth I continue to enthusiastically push for rollback of onerous federal regulations that duplicate existing state actions, create roadblocks, and generate mountains of red tape. The government should never stand in the way of small business owners, taxpayers or the middle class, but rather generate policies to help them prosper. That’s why I voted to kill the Bureau of Land Management’s Venting and Flaring Rule. The rule added regulations that duplicated oversight already provided by ND regulators. Waters of the U.S. rule Speaking of onerous regulation, I have consistently opposed the Waters of the U.S. rule, known as WOTUS, citing its devastating economic impacts, substantial regulatory costs and bureaucratic barriers to economic growth. In addition, I oppose this rule since it represents an unconstitutional power grab by the federal government and has serious implications, particularly for the agriculture and energy sectors in North Dakota. Illegal immigration and sanctuary cities I believe it is absolutely necessary for our country to secure our borders. In accordance with existing law, we need to take all appropriate steps to immediately plan, design, and construct a physical wall along the southern border of the U.S. In addition, we need to hire additional Border Patrol agents and put a stop to chain migration. For too long, our immigration policy has been broken, and it has created a national security crisis that will only be solved once our borders are secure again. In particular, we must act to defund sanctuary cities immediately. In the House, I was proud to support a bill that would have done exactly that. We passed it, and it went on to fail in the Senate which reinforces the need for our state to have another Senator that will stand for the rule of law and against illegal immigration. All-of-the-above energy God has blessed North Dakota with a wealth of natural resources, many of which power the region’s way of life. Whether it’s coal, oil, natural gas and even wind—we have helped spur the meteoric rise of our country into an energy superpower. I will continue to stand in support of all of these industries and will fight to prevent out-of-control federal bureaucrats from creating regulatory roadblocks that cost jobs and deter investment. Pro-life Life is precious. Every child should have the chance for life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. We must work to protect our most vulnerable in every way possible, and I have and will continue to do so. That's why I supported the most recent attempt at banning late-term abortion in our nation. As your Senator, I will reinforce our Christian foundational values to protect the unborn and I will continue to fight for pro-life issues. Farm Bill North Dakota farmers deserve to be supported with a strong Farm Bill that provides stability first and foremost. I will continue to push for legislation which will lead to much-needed relief for North Dakota producers who have been dealing with challenges ranging from drought to low commodity prices. In fixing the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) program, while maintaining the crop insurance as well as livestock forage programs, our agricultural community will directly benefit from the legislation. We need Swampbuster minimal effects language included in the bill to provide relief from onerous and excessive regulations. I will continue to work with the Agriculture Committee on the advancement of this critically important legislation. Healthcare It is imperative we replace Obamacare with a plan that provides immediate relief for families suffering under the burden of skyrocketing health insurance premiums and uncertainty. I have consistently fought for common-sense health care reform including efforts to replace Obamacare with a plan that is more patient-centered, flexible, and most importantly, affordable. Obamacare represents a big government one-size-fits-all approach rather than allowing states to build systems that work for their citizens. The alternative I support provides more state control with more money and more flexibility for our citizens. Strong military and support for our veterans Maintaining the most powerful military force on earth has long been a key priority of mine. Our Armed Forces are a global power for good and consist of the finest men and women our country has to offer. They selflessly put their lives on the line to maintain our freedoms, and we owe them an eternal debt of gratitude. That is why we must ensure the military is properly funded so they have the best equipment possible. Beyond that, when our veterans return home, our duty to them and their families is not over. We must ensure our veterans are getting world-class care and assistance and we must give back to those that gave so much for us. That’s why I supported the VA Mission Act. This legislation was enacted into law in early June, allowing the expansion of private care for veterans as an alternative to the VA system. This legislation is vitally important to rural states like North Dakota where veterans must travel great distances to see a VA doctor or the local facility cannot provide the care they need. The Second Amendment Our Second Amendment is one of the most paramount and cherished rights enjoyed by all of us as Americans. The radical left continues to assault our right to bear arms seeking to infringe on the Second Amendment in any way they can. I will continue to fight these attempts every step of the way. The Second Amendment must be defended and I’m happy to stand on my long-held record of defending this constitutional freedom. Social Security & Medicare' Social Security and Medicare are essential programs for American seniors. I believe we must protect the benefits that today’s beneficiaries receive along with the benefits of those nearing eligibility. We also need to protect Social Security and Medicare for future generations that will rely on these programs. As we go forward with solutions, I believe we need to focus on incremental program changes to future recipients now aged 55 and under. This ensures benefits will be available to them when they reach enrollment age, while at the same time, keeps the promise to those currently relying on the retirement income and Medicare coverage. It is imperative we make changes now. The longer we wait to address the issue, the more severe the eventual remedy will become. I am committed to finding the right path that protects these valuable programs not only for our seniors now enjoying these benefits but for the generations that follow them.	”
—Kevin Cramer’s campaign website (2018)

Heidi Heitkamp

The following were found on Heitkamp's 2018 campaign website.

“	Working families As a working mother, Heidi knows the challenges working families face. Through her work in the Senate, Heidi has reached across the aisle to build momentum for policies that will help North Dakota’s workers and families succeed. That’s why she supports commonsense policies like the FAMILY Act, which would benefit North Dakota families, seniors, and small businesses by providing workers with paid family leave at the cost of about a cup of coffee per week. Heidi knows that a family includes folks of all ages and that’s why she’s spent her career working for seniors and ensuring they are able to live and retire with the dignity they deserve. When North Dakota seniors were at risk of losing the pensions they worked their entire lives to earn, Heidi stepped up, fighting on their behalf to eliminate the devastating cuts. Heidi has also spent her time in the Senate making sure that Social Security and Medicare are never on the chopping block. Healthcare Since day one, Heidi has been working across the aisle on solutions both sides can agree on to bring down health care premiums and costs and to improve access for North Dakota families, seniors, and veterans – no matter where they live. Heidi understands that as with any sweeping legislation, the Affordable Care Act has its problems – that’s why she’s introduced several practical legislative fixes to the ACA and help improve care, and reduce costs for North Dakota families. Heidi has fought back against the harmful Health Insurance Tax and worked with both sides against mandates that would hurt North Dakotans and small businesses. In addition to pushing toward commonsense reforms, Heidi has opposed – and will continue to oppose – any bill that would kick North Dakotans off their insurance plans and raise premiums. "A Strong Economy' Heidi believes that North Dakotans who work hard should be able to get ahead and support their families. But too often, policies from Washington tilt the scales toward special interests rather than small businesses, entrepreneurs and middle-class North Dakotans. As a member of Senate committees on both small business and banking, Heidi worked on behalf of small businesses and our Main Street-shops, pushing to make them more competitive with large, out-of-state online retailers. She’s fighting to grow start-ups in North Dakota and rural America – not just in big cities and on America’s coasts. Heidi knows that regulatory burdens and red tape are the number one complaint of small business owners, which is why she worked with her Republican colleagues to negotiate a regulatory relief package that would protect consumers while boosting economic growth in rural America. As the former North Dakota Attorney General, Heidi has spent her entire career working hard to protect consumers from predatory behavior, and in the Senate, she stood up to Wells Fargo and Equifax to hold them accountable for ripping off middle-class families. As the state’s former Tax Commissioner, Heidi strongly supports permanently reforming the nation’s tax code to benefit middle-class families – not just millionaires or special interests. As the ranking member on the Senate subcommittee overseeing regulatory affairs, she has worked across the aisle to cut red tape in an effort to make government more efficient, because Heidi knows that regulations are not one-size-fits-all and shouldn’t disproportionately impact North Dakota farmers or small businesses. Heidi will keep working with both Republicans and Democrats to help small businesses thrive, support farmers and ranchers and grow North Dakota’s energy economy. Agriculture Heidi knows that agriculture is the backbone of North Dakota’s economy. As a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, Heidi worked across the aisle to write, negotiate, and help pass a Farm Bill with a strong crop insurance program and farm safety net. And when North Dakota farmers were hurt by burdensome regulations from Washington, Heidi had their backs and stood up to both the EPA and her own party. With low commodity prices and a devastating drought, Heidi successfully fought to ensure that North Dakota farmers and ranchers were eligible for federal relief programs and pushed for expanded staffing at Farm Service Agency offices As Congress begins writing the 2018 Farm Bill, Heidi will make sure North Dakota farmers and ranchers have a prime seat at the negotiating table. Energy North Dakota is a national model for an all-of-the-above energy strategy and Heidi has been a champion of North Dakota’s abundant natural energy resources. By working across the aisle, Heidi successfully negotiated and helped pass historic legislation that eliminated the nation’s 40-year ban on crude oil exports, boosting oil exports across the country. Now, Heidi is fighting to pave a viable path forward for coal through commonsense solutions both sides can agree on. Just as she brought 10 Democratic senators on board to push for the Keystone XL pipeline’s construction, Heidi is continuing to reach across the aisle, fighting for federal tax incentives that will bolster wind and alternative energy production. She will keep working to keep North Dakota on the cutting edge of diverse energy production that will grow our state’s energy economy, protect our national security, and help to make America energy independent. Seniors Heidi believes that anybody who works hard and plays by the rules should be able to count on the dignity of a secure retirement, plain and simple. That’s why she is a fierce defender of Social Security and Medicare programs that hundreds of thousands of seniors here in North Dakota depend on. And it’s why she has, and will continue to, fight hard against any cuts to these important lifelines. National Defense & Veterans Heidi deeply respects and admires the service members and veterans, both past and present, who fought and sacrificed to keep our country safe. That’s why she’s worked to boost resources and access to the programs and services our veterans rely on. Heidi secured funding to successfully bring a Vet Health Care Center to Grand Forks, held the VA accountable for chronic issues impacting veterans care, and pushed for initiatives that will keep North Dakota veterans more connected to the job and health care resources they deserve. Heidi has been a tireless advocate for North Dakota’s two military bases in Minot and Grand Forks and their communities. Whether it is defending the nuclear mission in Minot Air Force Base, or supporting federal resources for the Arctic mission from Grand Forks Air Force base, she knows that these bases are critical for both our state and our national defense strategy. As a member of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, Heidi partnered with her Republican colleagues to pass her bill, now law, to help keep North Dakota’s Northern Border secure, and she’ll keep working across the aisle to keep our nation’s borders and ports of entry safe. Safer Communities Heidi knows what makes North Dakota a special place to call home but that we face growing challenges. By gathering voices from across the state through her Strong & Safe Communities Initiative, she heard the concerns and ideas from dozens of leaders and community members across the state on how best to face new and emerging challenges facing North Dakota – from crude oil train derailments to human and drug trafficking-related crimes. Their words helped guide her. Her RESPONSE Act was signed into law, to make sure first responders handling crude oil train emergencies have the training they need to keep our communities protected and return home safely to their families. Heidi pushed for landmark anti-human trafficking legislation to crack down on criminals and protect victims. And by working closely with law enforcement in North Dakota, health care experts and treatment specialists, Heidi is tackling the opioid and addiction epidemic head on, which has devastated too many North Dakota families. Heidi will keep fighting to keep our communities strong and safe. Infrastructure Raised in the small town of Mantador by a father who worked a range of jobs, from truck driver to seasonal construction worker, Heidi understands how much North Dakotans rely on safe roads to transport their families and to get to and from work safely — which is why we need a federal investment in our nation’s infrastructure. After seeing firsthand how flooding can ravage North Dakota homes and communities, Heidi worked across the aisle to provide federal investments in flood protection projects. From strong rural water systems, to highway underpasses, to robust air and service programs that help keep rural towns and businesses connected, Heidi knows our state counts on safe and reliable infrastructure — that’s why she’ll keep pushing for a federal infrastructure bill that invests in states like North Dakota. Native American Issues A lifelong ally of Native communities, Heidi is committed to making sure Native children grow up with the opportunities and protection that every American child deserves. As a member of the Senate Indian Affairs Committee, the first bill Heidi introduced was signed into law. The bill created a commission – endorsed by all five North Dakota tribes – to help tackle the the comprehensive challenges Native young people face. As North Dakota Attorney General, Heidi helped implement the original Violence Against Women Act across the state, and as senator, supported strengthening legislation to better protect Native women. Heidi’s strong relationship with North Dakota, tribal and federal law enforcement and her understanding of complex jurisdictional issues has also contributed to her ability to work toward improving protections for Native women and children and to work to end the crisis of murdered and missing Native women.	”
—Heidi Heitkamp’s campaign website (2018)

Campaign tactics and strategies

Top conservative groups decline to support Cramer

Top conservative groups Americans for Prosperity (AFP) and Club for Growth declined to offer support to Cramer's campaign. AFP President Tim Phillips said Cramer was inconsistent on reducing government spending and supporting free trade.

Relationship with Donald Trump and Mike Pence

During an event in September 2017 to promote his tax plan, President Donald Trump invited Heitkamp on stage to join him and Republican legislators who supported the bill. Trump said, "Everybody’s saying, ‘What’s she doing up here?’ But I’ll tell you what: Good woman.”

Heitkamp's office maintained a list of more than a dozen meetings Heitkamp had with the president since the 2016 presidential election. She also attended a banking deregulation bill signing with Trump in May 2018.

Cramer commented on Heitkamp's association with Trump, saying, "In some respects it even smacks of desperation that I don't think very many people find appealing ... I find it more amusing that she's trying to beef up her Trump credentials to prove herself worthy of being my opponent, whose credentials as it relates to Donald Trump aren't really in question."

Trump endorsed Cramer on June 13 following Cramer's Republican primary win. The president spoke at a rally with Cramer on June 27 and attended a private fundraiser for Cramer on September 7.

Vice President Mike Pence (R) attended fundraisers for Cramer in North Dakota on March 27 and on July 25, 2018.

Social media

Twitter accounts

Tweets by Kevin Cramer Tweets by Heidi Heitkamp

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Heidi Heitkamp

Kevin Cramer

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 53 North Dakota counties—7.5 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County	Trump margin of victory in 2016	Obama margin of victory in 2012	Obama margin of victory in 2008
Benson County, North Dakota	4.33%	17.01%	33.53%
Ransom County, North Dakota	15.77%	13.77%	15.33%
Sargent County, North Dakota	19.73%	9.77%	17.49%
Steele County, North Dakota	17.72%	1.92%	20.35%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won North Dakota with 63 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 27.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1892 and 2016, North Dakota voted Republican 81.25 percent of the time and Democratic 15.6 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, North Dakota voted Republican all five times.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in North Dakota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won eight out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 13.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won four out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 10.7 points.

In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 39 out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 25.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 43 out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 38.9 points. Trump won three districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

2016 presidential results by state House district
District	Obama	Romney	2012 Margin	Clinton	Trump	2016 Margin	Party Control
1	25.25%	72.44%	R+47.2	15.70%	77.60%	R+61.9	R
2	23.50%	74.04%	R+50.5	12.81%	81.65%	R+68.8	R
3	34.53%	62.62%	R+28.1	20.28%	69.79%	R+49.5	R
4	44.65%	53.30%	R+8.7	31.23%	62.19%	R+31	R
5	35.04%	62.99%	R+27.9	25.32%	65.85%	R+40.5	R
6	33.60%	64.02%	R+30.4	19.03%	73.86%	R+54.8	R
7	28.93%	68.80%	R+39.9	18.95%	74.05%	R+55.1	R
8	28.39%	69.14%	R+40.7	16.17%	78.39%	R+62.2	R
9	73.98%	24.10%	D+49.9	57.16%	33.14%	D+24	D
10	40.63%	56.80%	R+16.2	23.79%	68.63%	R+44.8	R
11	54.52%	42.92%	D+11.6	47.09%	42.67%	D+4.4	D
12	40.44%	56.89%	R+16.5	28.16%	63.38%	R+35.2	R
13	45.20%	52.76%	R+7.6	36.60%	54.96%	R+18.4	R
14	30.67%	67.01%	R+36.3	19.04%	74.40%	R+55.4	R
15	43.56%	53.45%	R+9.9	28.47%	62.14%	R+33.7	R
16	50.78%	45.95%	D+4.8	40.22%	49.41%	R+9.2	R
17	43.28%	54.92%	R+11.6	36.93%	56.05%	R+19.1	R
18	55.25%	41.99%	D+13.3	39.68%	50.13%	R+10.4	D
19	38.30%	59.10%	R+20.8	23.98%	68.23%	R+44.3	R
20	43.84%	53.94%	R+10.1	28.99%	61.73%	R+32.7	D
21	58.10%	37.73%	D+20.4	49.24%	38.72%	D+10.5	D
22	39.93%	57.89%	R+18	30.35%	60.24%	R+29.9	R
23	48.91%	48.94%	R+0	34.28%	57.80%	R+23.5	R
24	45.51%	52.18%	R+6.7	30.90%	59.19%	R+28.3	R
25	41.58%	56.58%	R+15	27.20%	64.26%	R+37.1	D
26	47.28%	50.58%	R+3.3	30.77%	59.94%	R+29.2	R
27	43.92%	53.66%	R+9.7	38.23%	51.62%	R+13.4	R
28	25.69%	71.88%	R+46.2	14.18%	80.31%	R+66.1	R
29	34.32%	63.27%	R+28.9	20.98%	72.76%	R+51.8	R
30	34.36%	63.38%	R+29	23.14%	69.35%	R+46.2	R
31	37.63%	60.06%	R+22.4	24.35%	68.30%	R+44	R
32	37.65%	59.45%	R+21.8	26.56%	64.60%	R+38	R
33	26.89%	70.44%	R+43.6	13.37%	81.32%	R+68	R
34	36.69%	60.28%	R+23.6	23.55%	67.65%	R+44.1	R
35	37.72%	59.56%	R+21.8	29.88%	60.59%	R+30.7	R
36	21.01%	77.00%	R+56	11.33%	83.81%	R+72.5	R
37	26.51%	71.55%	R+45	16.67%	77.64%	R+61	R
38	30.15%	67.72%	R+37.6	19.59%	72.28%	R+52.7	R
39	19.92%	78.02%	R+58.1	11.09%	83.49%	R+72.4	R
40	35.42%	61.14%	R+25.7	25.35%	63.05%	R+37.7	R
41	42.55%	55.38%	R+12.8	39.53%	51.32%	R+11.8	R
42	49.85%	46.46%	D+3.4	39.58%	49.50%	R+9.9	R
43	49.24%	48.50%	D+0.7	41.62%	50.35%	R+8.7	R
44	52.26%	44.96%	D+7.3	46.38%	42.62%	D+3.8	D
45	44.75%	52.72%	R+8	35.95%	54.29%	R+18.3	R
46	45.62%	52.35%	R+6.7	41.96%	49.55%	R+7.6	R
47	30.74%	67.39%	R+36.7	25.59%	67.63%	R+42	R
Total	38.92%	58.66%	R+19.7	27.74%	64.15%	R+36.4	-
Source: Daily Kos

Election history

2016

See also: United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated North Dakota's U.S. Senate race as safely Republican. Incumbent John Hoeven (R) defeated Eliot Glassheim (D), Robert Marquette (L), and James Germalic (I) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced a primary opponent in June.

U.S. Senate, North Dakota General Election, 2016

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	John Hoeven Incumbent	78.5%	268,788
	Democratic	Eliot Glassheim	17%	58,116
	Libertarian	Robert Marquette	3.1%	10,556
	Independent	James Germalic	1.4%	4,675
	N/A	Write-in	0.1%	366
Total Votes				342,501
Source: North Dakota Secretary of State

2012

See also: United States Senate elections in North Dakota, 2012

On November 6, 2012, Heidi Heitkamp (D) won election to the United States Senate. She defeated Rick Berg (R) in the general election.

U.S. Senate, North Dakota General Election, 2012

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Heidi Heitkamp	50.5%	161,337
	Republican	Rick Berg	49.5%	158,401
Total Votes				319,738
Source: North Dakota Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Wave election analysis

See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition to U.S. Senate elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

U.S. Senate wave elections
Year	President	Party	Election type	Senate seats change	Senate majority
1932	Hoover	R	Presidential	-13	D (flipped)
1958	Eisenhower	R	Second midterm	-12	D
1946	Truman	D	First midterm	-10	R (flipped)
1980	Carter	D	Presidential	-9	R (flipped)
2014	Obama	D	Second midterm	-9	R (flipped)
1942	Roosevelt	D	Third midterm	-8	D
2008	George W. Bush	D	Presidential	-8	D
1926	Coolidge	R	First midterm	-7	R
1930	Hoover	R	First midterm	-7	R
1986	Reagan	R	Second midterm	-7	D (flipped)

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in North Dakota heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

• Following the 2016 elections, Democrats and Republicans each held one U.S. Senate seat in North Dakota.
• Republicans held the state's at-large U.S. House seat.

State executives

• As of September 2018, Republicans held nine of 10 state executive positions, with the tenth held by a nonpartisan official.
• The governor of North Dakota was Republican Doug Burgum. Burgum won election in 2016.

State legislature

• Republicans controlled both chambers of the North Dakota State Legislature. They had a 80-13 majority in the state House and a 38-9 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

• North Dakota was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party held the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: North Dakota elections, 2018

North Dakota held elections for the following positions in 2018:

• One seat in the U.S. Senate
• One seat in the U.S. House
• Five state executive seats
• 24 out of 47 seats in the state Senate
• 48 out of 94 seats in the state House
• One of five seats on the state Supreme Court

Demographics

Demographic data for North Dakota
	North Dakota	U.S.
Total population:	756,835	316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):	69,001	3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:	88.7%	73.6%
Black/African American:	1.6%	12.6%
Asian:	1.2%	5.1%
Native American:	5.3%	0.8%
Pacific Islander:	0%	0.2%
Two or more:	2.2%	3%
Hispanic/Latino:	2.9%	17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:	91.7%	86.7%
College graduation rate:	27.7%	29.8%
Income
Median household income:	$57,181	$53,889
Persons below poverty level:	12.2%	11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in North Dakota. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, North Dakota's three largest cities were Fargo (pop. est. 120,000), Bismarck (pop. est. 73,000), and Grand Forks (pop. est. 57,000).

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in North Dakota from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the North Dakota Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in North Dakota every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), North Dakota 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Donald Trump	63.0%	Hillary Clinton	27.2%	35.8%
2012	Mitt Romney	58.3%	Barack Obama	38.7%	19.6%
2008	John McCain	53.3%	Barack Obama	44.6%	8.7%
2004	George W. Bush	62.9%	John Kerry	35.5%	27.4%
2000	George W. Bush	60.7%	Al Gore	33.1%	27.6%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in North Dakota from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), North Dakota 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	John Hoeven	78.5%	Eliot Glassheim	17.0%	61.5%
2012	Heidi Heitkamp	50.2%	Rick Berg	49.3%	0.9%
2010	John Hoeven	76.1%	Tracy Potter	22.2%	53.9%
2006	Kent Conrad	68.8%	Dwight Grotberg	29.5%	39.3%
2004	Byron Dorgan	68.3%	Mike Liffrig	31.7%	36.6%
2000	Kent Conrad	61.4%	Duane Sand	38.6%	22.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in North Dakota.

Election results (Governor), North Dakota 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Doug Burgum	76.5%	Marvin Nelson	19.4%	57.1%
2012	Jack Dalrymple	63.1%	Ryan Taylor	34.3%	28.8%
2008	John Hoeven	74.4%	Tim Mathern	23.5%	50.9%
2004	John Hoeven	71.3%	Joe Satrom	27.4%	43.9%
2000	John Hoeven	55.0%	Heidi Heitkamp	45.0%	10.0%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent North Dakota in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, North Dakota 2000-2016
Year	Republicans	Republicans (%)	Democrats	Democrats (%)	Balance of power
2016	1	100.0%	0	0.0%	R+1
2014	1	100.0%	0	0.0%	R+1
2012	1	100.0%	0	0.0%	R+1
2010	1	100.0%	0	0.0%	R+1
2008	0	0.0%	1	100.0%	D+1
2006	0	0.0%	1	100.0%	D+1
2004	0	0.0%	1	100.0%	D+1
2002	0	0.0%	1	100.0%	D+1
2000	0	0.0%	1	100.0%	D+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

North Dakota Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas  •  Thirty-one years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
Governor	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
Senate	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
House	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

See also

• United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota, 2018
• United States Senate elections, 2018
• Heidi Heitkamp
• United States Senate election in North Dakota (June 12, 2018 Democratic primary)
• United States Senate election in North Dakota (June 12, 2018 Republican primary)

Footnotes

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North Dakota's current delegation to the United States Congress

Senators

Kevin Cramer (R)

John Hoeven (R)

Representatives

Julie Fedorchak (R)

Republican Party (3)