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Kupiansk offensive

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Kupiansk offensive
Part of the Luhansk Oblast campaign of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Kupiansk frontline as of April 20, 2025
Date29 November 2024[1] — present
(4 months and 4 weeks)
Location
Status Ongoing
Territorial
changes
Russian forces establish bridgeheads across the Oskil river, and capture most of Dvorichna
Belligerents
Russia Ukraine
Strength
10,000+[2] ~2,000[2]

The Kupiansk offensive refers to a series of military engagements taking place around the city of Kupiansk, as well as along the Oskil river between Kupiansk through Dvorichna to the border settlement of Topoli in Kharkiv Oblast. Offensive operations restarted in the direction after Russian forces attacked Kupiansk in late November 2024, and intensified after Russian forces established several bridgeheads across the western bank of the Oskil river in early 2025.[2][3][4]

Background

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In September 2022, Ukrainian forces launched a major counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast, forcing Russian forces to withdraw from a majority of Kharkiv Oblast and onto the eastern bank of the Oskil river. During the counteroffensive, Kupiansk city was liberated.[5]

In late 2024, amidst Russian offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces began attacking and advancing in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, particularly in the direction of Kupiansk, the administrative centre of Kupiansk Raion. On November 13, Russian forces directly attacked Kupiansk city from the north, using two armoured columns.[6] However, by late November, Russian forces had mostly withdrawn from Kupiansk city after successful Ukrainian counterattacks.

At the end of January 2025, the Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian forces are attempting to use their bridgeheads across the Oskil river to support their advances and encircle Kupiansk from the northwest, as well as set the ground for future advances and offensives into Kharkiv Oblast.[7]

Offensive

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First bridgehead established and capture of Dvorichna (29 November 2024 — 29 January 2025)

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At the end of November 2024, a Ukrainian official confirmed that Russian troops recently crossed over to the west bank of the Oskil River near the suspension bridge south of Novomlynsk.[1][8] At the same time, Ukraine’s General Staff admitted that Russian forces launched attacks on the west bank near Fyholivka, Holubivka, and Kindrashivka.[9] The fighting continued into December 2024,[10] when Ukrainian troops reported that Russian forces were attempting to cross the Oskil river a few kilometres north of Kupiansk city. Russian troops managed to temporarily capture the village of Novomlynsk in early December, however they were quickly forced to withdraw a few days later.[11] Russian attempts at crossing the river throughout the month were unsuccessful and repelled by Ukrainian forces.[12]

At the end of December, Russian military bloggers reported that Russian forces had withdrawn from the northeastern outskirts of Kupiansk to fortified positions near Petropavlivka some time ago, as Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles disrupted Russian ground supply lines.[13] In early January 2025, Russian forces increased pressure on the western bank of the river and began attacking Ukrainian positions across the Oskil river near the settlement of Dvorichna, making several attempts to cross the river and gain a foothold within the settlement. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on 8 January that Russian forces had advanced slightly south of Dvorichna and were moving along the Dvorichna-Kupyansk highway toward Zapadne.[14] The following day, The Moscow Times reported that Russian forces had successfully established a bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskil river on the southeastern outskirts of Dvorichna, 10 kilometres north of Kupiansk city. During this time, Russian forces claimed to have captured Novomlynsk, which had fallen between Russian and Ukrainian control frequently over the past month.[15]

Throughout January, Russian forces made small advances on their bridgehead around Dvorichna, both inside and outside the settlement, and reported to have captured the abandoned village of Kalynove,[16] but they faced heavy resistance and counterattacks from Ukrainian forces in the area, which hindered their advance.[17] On 19 January, the Ukrainian General Staff acknowledged recent claims that Russian forces were attacking near Stroivka.[18] After struggling to secure Dvorichna, Russian troops advanced westward along the P-79 highway, claimed to have captured the village of Zapadne on 22 January.[19] On January 29, the Russian Ministry of Defence claimed that Russian forces had expanded their bridgehead and captured Dvorichna.[20] However, this claim was denied by the Governor of Kharkiv Oblast.[21]

Second bridgehead and continued advances (29 January 2025 — 29 March 2025)

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After claiming to have captured Dvorichna, Russian forces continued to advance north, west, and southwest of the settlement, advancing towards the settlement of Fyholivka, north of Dvorichna. In early February, Ukrainian media and Russian milbloggers reported that Russian forces had successfully established a second bridgehead near Topoli.[22][23][24] On February 5, Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that Russian forces had captured Zapadne.[25] The following day, Russian forces captured Fyholivka.[24] Following this, advances in the bridgehead began to stall, however Russian forces continued to attack the village of Krasne Pershe from across the Oskil river, as well as attempting to advance north from the bridgehead.

Footage released on February 22 showed Russian troops advancing toward the center of Topoli.[26] Two days later, the Russian Ministry of Defence claimed that Russian forces captured the border settlement of Topoli.[3] Despite this claim, fighting continued in the settlement throughout February and March, until Russian forces finally secured control over the settlement on March 23.[27]

Continuing through March, Ukrainian forces managed to launch small counterattacks in the direction of Zapadne and recaptured part of the settlement.[28] Simultaneously, Russian forces began expanding their positions north of Dvorichna towards the settlement of Krasne Pershe, claiming to have established a third bridgehead north of the settlement, however there was no confirmation of any presence of Russian troops on the western river bank in the area. On March 29, Russian forces claimed to have captured Krasne Pershe.[29]

Third bridgehead and fighting for Kamyanka (29 March 2025 — present)

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Towards the end of March, Russian forces began advancing in the southern part of the Dvorichna bridgehead towards Kupiansk's northern outskirts, and started heading towards the strategically located settlement of Kindrashivka.[28] Fighting around the settlement continued into April, when Russian forces claimed to have advanced into the northern and eastern parts of the settlement. During these advances, fighting was also reported on the northwestern outskirts of Petropavlivka.[30]

In early April, Russian forces started attacking the village of Kamyanka from across the Oskil river and claimed to have established a bridgehead directly northeast of the village, however Russian troop presence couldn't be confirmed at the time.[30] Fighting continued throughout the week, and on April 8, Russian forces were confirmed to be active on the western bank of the Oskil river on the outskirts of Kamyanka, with troops entering the village through the south the next day.[4] Russian attacks in and around Kamyanka continued through the week, with Russian forces claiming to have advanced in and northeast of the village on April 16.[31] Russian forces continued to expand their bridgehead the next day, with footage showing Russian troops advancing directly east of Kamyanka, whilst in the Dvorichna direction, Russian forces claimed to have advanced to the west of Zapadne.[32] On April 18, Russian forces advanced south of Zapadne and east of Kindrashivka towards the settlement of Mala Shapkivka, and claimed to have entered it from the southeastern outskirts the following day, with claims from a Russian milblogger that central Mala Shapkivka had become a grey zone.[33]

On April 22, Russian forces and milbloggers claimed several advances across the Kupiansk frontline and claimed to have captured the entire western bank of the Oskil river north of Kupiansk. Russian forces claimed to have advanced northeast of Topoli along the international border with Russia and Ukraine, southwest of Kamyanka and northeast of Krasne Pershe along the Oskil river, northwest of Zapadne towards the outskirts of Doroshivka and southwest towards Mala Shapkivka, north of Kupiansk, and northwest and northeast along Petropavlivka’s outskirts. Fighting continued in and around the settlements of Kamyanka, Mala Shapkivka, Kindrashivka, and Petropavlivka.[34]

Analysis

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The Kupiansk offensive is part of a renewed effort to advance into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and retake positions up to, and across, the Oskil river in order to cut off Ukrainian logistics on the eastern bank.[35] The Institute for the Study of War has assessed that recapturing territory up to the Oskil river would allow Russian forces to encircle northern Donetsk Oblast and directly attack Ukrainian logistics centres there, such as Lyman, as part of Russia’s broader main effort in eastern Ukraine.[36]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b "Ukrainian forces advance near Vuhledar, Russian troops capture two villages near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove". New Voice. Retrieved 1 February 2025.
  2. ^ a b c "A Russian Tank Army Is Poised To Attack Kupyansk—But First It Needs To Cross The Oskil River". Forbes. 5 February 2025.
  3. ^ a b "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. 24 February 2025.
  4. ^ a b "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 9, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. 9 April 2025.
  5. ^ "'Everybody was running away.' Ukrainians in Kharkiv villages describe Russia's retreat". CNN. 12 September 2022.
  6. ^ "Russian forces breach Kupyansk: calls for Ukrainian Command accountability intensify". UAWire. 13 November 2024.
  7. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 31, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. 31 January 2025.
  8. ^ "Russia could encircle Kupyansk if they secure right bank of Oskil". global.espreso.tv. Retrieved 1 February 2025.
  9. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 29, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 1 February 2025.
  10. ^ "Russians build bridgeheads on the Oskil River and the Dnipro. Day 1034 of the war". OSW. 23 December 2024.
  11. ^ "Ukrainian forces liberate Novomlynsk, gain control of Oskil River's right bank in Kharkiv Oblast". Euromaidan Press. 3 December 2024.
  12. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 11, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. 11 December 2024.
  13. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 27, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 2 February 2025.
  14. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 8, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 2 February 2025.
  15. ^ "Russian Forces Establish Bridgehead Across Frontline River in Eastern Ukraine". The Moscow Times. 9 January 2025.
  16. ^ "Russia says it takes control of two villages in Eastern Ukraine". Reuters. 12 January 2025.
  17. ^ "Russian forces face major setbacks in attempted Kupyansk offensive". UAWire. 10 February 2025.
  18. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 19, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 21 April 2025.
  19. ^ "Russian Troops Capture Kharkiv Region Village Amid Westward Advance". The Moscow Times. 22 January 2025.
  20. ^ "Russian military reports capture of new village in eastern Ukraine". Reuters. 30 January 2025.
  21. ^ "'Pure propaganda' — Kharkiv Oblast governor denies Russian claims of capturing Dvorichna". The Kyiv Independent. 28 January 2025. Retrieved 21 April 2025.
  22. ^ "The occupiers have established another foothold on the Oskil River bank: The enemy advances – DeepState". ТСН.ua. 6 February 2025. Retrieved 21 April 2025.
  23. ^ "Russia establishes new foothold on right bank of Oskil River". global.espreso.tv. Retrieved 21 April 2025.
  24. ^ a b "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. 6 February 2025.
  25. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 5, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 21 April 2025.
  26. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 22, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. 22 February 2025. Retrieved 21 April 2025.
  27. ^ "DeepStateMAP". DeepStateMAP. 23 March 2025.
  28. ^ a b "Ukrainian Forces regain ground in Kharkiv region". UAWire. 5 March 2025.
  29. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. 29 March 2025.
  30. ^ a b "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 1, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. 1 April 2025.
  31. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 16, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. 16 April 2025.
  32. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. 17 April 2025.
  33. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 19, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. 19 April 2025.
  34. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. 22 April 2025.
  35. ^ "British intelligence analyzes new Russian assault attempts near Kupiansk". RBC-Ukraine. 17 November 2024.
  36. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2025". Institute for the Study of War. 14 April 2025.