Steriods in Baseball

Written By: Eric Gartman

A dark cloud is looming over Major League Baseball. The specter of steroid use among players seems to be increasing daily this winter. First came the revelation by MLB that 5-7 percent of players tested positive for steroid use. This figure included pitchers, who would not benefit by steroid use, so the percentage among hitters is therefore much higher. Also, 5-7 percent tested positive AFTER the new policy was announced. What were the percentages before? As if this weren't bad enough, the nutrition company BALCO is now under investigation for dissemination of steroids, and one witness called to testify was baseball's biggest star, Barry Bonds, a client of BALCO since the winter of 2000. Since becoming a BALCO client, much has changed for Bonds. He gained 20 pounds of muscle, and his performance began to soar. He jumped from 46 homers to 73 at age 36, and his win shares jumped from 32 to 54 from 2000 to 2001. He has won the MVP every since, at ages 36-38. According to Stats, Inc. he had never hit a homer over 450 feet before then, whereas he has now done it 21 times. All this has cast a shadow over his Herculean efforts.

But as we know, the issue does not stop with Bonds. Another client of BALCO is Jason Giambi, whose performance declined quite a bit last year. It seems that baseball might have to prepare itself for the specter of a scandal that might even rival the Black Sox. What if we find out that Bonds, as well as Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire, baseball's biggest and most popular start, used illegal substances? How will it affect their records? Will they be revoked? And what impact will it have on the fans?

At this point, we don't know exactly who has used steroids. Only two players, Ken Caminiti and Jose Canseco have admitted to it. Canseco's massive bulk led to rumors about him well before he admitted to it, while Caminiti had one of the biggest fluke seasons of all time in 1996 according to Bill James. Caminiti never came close to posting those kind of numbers before or after. Furthermore, he was 33 in 1996, fairly old for a player to have a career year. Caminiti was much bigger than ever in ‘ 96, and he quickly lost it. He also displayed the facial acne associated with steroid use. Using all these indicators, a fan can examine players with similar trends, and can thus figure who might be on the juice, without making public accusations. Going by this model, however, there are unfortunately several prominent players who fit the profile.

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