Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise

doi:10.1038/nature17145

. 2016 Mar 31;531(7596):591-7.

doi: 10.1038/nature17145.

Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise

Robert M DeConto¹, David Pollard²

Affiliations

¹ Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003, USA.
² Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, USA.

PMID: 27029274
DOI: 10.1038/nature17145

Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise

Robert M DeConto et al. Nature. 2016.

. 2016 Mar 31;531(7596):591-7.

doi: 10.1038/nature17145.

Authors

Robert M DeConto¹, David Pollard²

Affiliations

¹ Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003, USA.
² Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, USA.

PMID: 27029274
DOI: 10.1038/nature17145

Abstract

Polar temperatures over the last several million years have, at times, been slightly warmer than today, yet global mean sea level has been 6-9 metres higher as recently as the Last Interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) and possibly higher during the Pliocene epoch (about three million years ago). In both cases the Antarctic ice sheet has been implicated as the primary contributor, hinting at its future vulnerability. Here we use a model coupling ice sheet and climate dynamics-including previously underappreciated processes linking atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs-that is calibrated against Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates and applied to future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100 and more than 15 metres by 2500, if emissions continue unabated. In this case atmospheric warming will soon become the dominant driver of ice loss, but prolonged ocean warming will delay its recovery for thousands of years.

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[1] Nature. 2015 Oct 15;526(7573):421-5 - PubMed

[2] Nature. 2015 Oct 15;526(7573):421-5 - PubMed

[3] Nature. 2012 Mar 14;483(7390):453-6 - PubMed

[4] Nature. 2012 Mar 14;483(7390):453-6 - PubMed

[5] Nature. 2013 May 9;497(7448):235-8 - PubMed

[6] Nature. 2013 May 9;497(7448):235-8 - PubMed

[7] Science. 2006 Mar 24;311(5768):1747-50 - PubMed

[8] Science. 2006 Mar 24;311(5768):1747-50 - PubMed

[9] Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Nov 17;112(46):14191-6 - PubMed

[10] Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Nov 17;112(46):14191-6 - PubMed

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Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise

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Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise

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