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. 2015 Sep 24:5:14457.
doi: 10.1038/srep14457.

Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia

R Russell M Paterson  1 , Lalit Kumar  2 , Subhashni Taylor  2 , Nelson Lima  1   3
Affiliations

Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia

R Russell M Paterson et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

The production of palm oil (PO) is highly profitable. The economies of the principal producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, and others, benefit considerably. Climate change (CC) will most likely have an impact on the distribution of oil palms (OP) (Elaeis guineensis). Here we present modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability of growing OP, in Malaysia and Indonesia. A process-oriented niche model of OP was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of CC under the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Decreases in climatic suitability for OP in the region were gradual by 2030 but became more pronounced by 2100. These projections imply that OP growth will be affected severely by CC, with obvious implications to the economies of (a) Indonesia and Malaysia and (b) the PO industry, but with potential benefits towards reducing CC. A possible remedial action is to concentrate research on development of new varieties of OP that are less vulnerable to CC.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. The climate (EI) for Elaeis guineensis based on CLIMEX for reference climate (averaging period 1950–2000).
White areas indicate unsuitable climate areas (EI = 0), blue areas indicate marginal climate areas (EI = 1–10), yellow areas indicate suitable climate areas (EI = 10–20) and red areas indicate highly suitable climate areas (EI > 20). Data for current Malaysian and Indonesian distribution (green dots) are taken from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF, 2010) and literature. The CLIMEX results were exported into GIS software (ArcGIS Software Version 10.2. Environment Systems Research Institute, Redlands, CA) to generate the map in this figure.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The climate (EI) for E. guineensis based on CLIMEX for 2030 under the: (a). CSIRO-Mk3.0 global climate model running the SRES A1B; (b) CSIRO-Mk3.0 global climate model running the SRES A2; (c) MIROC-H global climate model running the SRES A1B and (d) MIROC-H global climate model running the SRES A2. White areas indicate unsuitable climate areas (EI = 0), blue areas indicate marginal climate areas (EI = 1–10), yellow areas indicate suitable climate areas (EI = 10–20) and red areas indicate highly suitable climate areas (EI > 20). The CLIMEX results were exported into GIS software (ArcGIS Software Version 10.2. Environment Systems Research Institute, Redlands, CA) to generate the map in this figure.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The climate (EI) for E. guineensis based on CLIMEX for 2070 under the: (a). CSIRO-Mk3.0 global climate model running the SRES A1B, (b) CSIRO-Mk3.0 global climate model running the SRES A2; (c) MIROC-H global climate model running the SRES A1B and (d) MIROC-H global climate model running the SRES A2. White areas indicate unsuitable climate areas (EI = 0), blue areas indicate marginal climate areas (EI = 1–10), yellow areas indicate suitable climate areas (EI = 10–20) and red areas indicate highly suitable climate areas (EI > 20). The CLIMEX results were exported into GIS software (ArcGIS Software Version 10.2. Environment Systems Research Institute, Redlands, CA) to generate the map in this figure.
Figure 4
Figure 4
The climate (Ecoclimatic index (EI) for E. guineensis based on CLIMEX for 2100 under the: (a). CSIRO-Mk3.0 global climate model running the SRES A1B; (b) CSIRO-Mk3.0 global climate model running the SRES A2; (c) MIROC-H global climate model running the SRES A1B and (d) MIROC-H global climate model running the SRES A2. White areas indicate unsuitable climate areas (EI = 0), blue areas indicate marginal climate areas (EI = 1–10), yellow areas indicate suitable climate areas (EI = 10–20) and red areas indicate highly suitable climate areas (EI > 20). The CLIMEX results were exported into GIS software (ArcGIS Software Version 10.2. Environment Systems Research Institute, Redlands, CA) to generate the map in this figure.
Figure 5
Figure 5. Changes in cold stress from historical climate to 2100.
The CLIMEX results were exported into GIS software (ArcGIS Software Version 10.2. Environment Systems Research Institute, Redlands, CA) to generate the map in this figure.
Figure 6
Figure 6. Changes in heat stress from historical climate to 2100.
The CLIMEX results were exported into GIS software (ArcGIS Software Version 10.2. Environment Systems Research Institute, Redlands, CA) to generate the map in this figure.
Figure 7
Figure 7. Changes in dry stress from historical climate to 2100.
The CLIMEX results were exported into GIS software (ArcGIS Software Version 10.2. Environment Systems Research Institute, Redlands, CA) to generate the map in this figure.
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